179
FXUS63 KUNR 072257
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
457 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered popcorn showers/storms this afternoon and evening.

- Dry and warmer the rest of the week.

- Elevated fire conditions as the week progresses.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show upper trough over
the northern plains this afternoon, with upper ridge building over
the west coast. Surface analysis depicts low pressure over the
eastern Dakotas, with a N/S boundary running down into Nebraska.
Radar highlights widespread popcorn storms over the forecast area.
Temperatures currently sit in the mid 60s to mid 70s this
afternoon, with breezy northwest winds outside of storms.

Storms are expected to continue through the afternoon, dyeing off
early evening as we lose the daytime heating. Very low CAPE and
shear today will limit any severe potential, but still could
experience brief downpours with small hail and some stronger wind
gusts. The presence of storms today along with breezy northwest
winds will keep our temperatures at or a bit below guidance.

Later tonight through Monday the upper ridge builds over the
western CONUS into the Rockies, and eventually over the northern
and central plains later in the week.This pattern shift will bring
warmer and dry conditions the rest of this week. By
Thursday/Friday expect widespread 90+ temps, with some areas
potentially hitting low 100s over the weekend. This drier and
increasingly hot weather will also bring elevated fire conditions,
with areas in northeastern WY and southwestern SD hitting RH`s
down into the lower teens at times during the week. Long range
models do show a brief wave riding the ridge over the northern
plains next Sunday, which will likely be the next chance for any
significant precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 457 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Isolated TSRA/SHRA will continue through early evening. Otherwise,
VFR conditions.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...JC