757
FXUS63 KUNR 080715
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
115 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming hot
- Limited precipitation chances
- Elevated fire weather conditions develop

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 114 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

07z surface analysis had low over MN with stationary front into
the southern Plains. High pressure over the CWA with nearly clear
skies. Water vapour loop had upper trough over the upper Midwest
sliding east as western CONUS upper ridge pokes into the Rockies.
Upper ridge will be the main weather make this week.

Today, residual boundary layer moisture on back side of upper
trough will support cumulus field over western SD by afternoon. A
sprinkle or isolated shower cannot be ruled out over central SD,
but PoPs too low to paint. Temperatures will be near guidance.

Tuesday through Friday, upper/thermal ridge builds into the
northern Plains. Confidence is high that widespread increasingly
hot and dry weather will develop. Thursday/Friday, chance of MaxT
100F+ is 25-50% over northeastern WY/southwestern SD plains.
Widespread 90s elsewhere. As one would expect, can`t rule out a
stray storm with ridge riders for the end of the week, but PoPs
too low to scrawl.

Next weekend, upper ridge flattens a bit, which may open up small
PoPs for isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures spreads increase a
bit too, but chance for MaxT 90F+ still high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 931 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 114 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Confidence is high that this week will be increasingly hot and
dry. Minimum afternoon relative humidities will dip into the teens
over northeastern WY this afternoon and then spread into western
SD by Thursday with some readings around 10% probable. Elevated
fire weather conditions are expected.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson