736
FNUS75 KTWC 142141
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Brown Fire...RIST
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
241 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MST on July 15.

.DISCUSSION...Deeper moisture will be in place through at least
Tuesday, which will result in a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms. General winds will be light. However, there will
be the threat of thunderstorm outflow winds which can exceed 50
mph and result in extreme fire behavior and/or a change in the
direction of fire spread.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in
                    the morning, then showers and thunderstorms
                    likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent increasing to 60 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................4.
Max temperature.....95-98 degrees.
Min humidity........30-33 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest 3 to 8 mph early in the morning,
                    becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph by late morning
                    and continuing through the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL increasing to 9900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North to northwest 7 to 9 knots.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely
                    in the evening, then a slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent decreasing to 20 percent overnight.
LAL.................4.
Min temperature.....70-73 degrees.
Max humidity........75-78 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest 5 to 10 mph early in the evening,
                    becoming west to southwest 3 to 8 mph by late
                    evening and continuing overnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 10 knots in the evening,
                    becoming north to northeast overnight.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in
                    the morning, then a chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent increasing to 50 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................4.
Max temperature.....96-99 degrees.
Min humidity........27-30 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest to west 3 to 8 mph, becoming
                    northwest by late morning and increasing to
                    7 to 12 mph with gusts to 22 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 10500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North to northeast 5 to 8 knots in the
                    morning, becoming northwest 9 to 12 knots in
                    the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...ZELL
Requested by...Planning
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418041.0/TWC
.DELDT 07/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joey_kosiorowski@firenet.gov

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson