Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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644
FNUS75 KTWC 051806
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for SNOWSHED...USFS AZCNF
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1106 AM MST Fri Jul 5 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MST on July 05.

.DISCUSSION...
A good chance of thunderstorms near the wildfire area this
afternoon. There are some signs that storm formation may favor
western slopes, however even if it does the chance for erratic
outflows and additional lighting strikes in the area will be
strong. A chance of storms early in the evening, fading quickly
after 7 PM. The area will keep a chance of mainly afternoon
thunderstorms into next week even as other portions of southeast
Arizona further west and northwest try to dry out.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....89-92 degrees.
Min humidity........15-18 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 10 knots.

TIME (MST)      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........53        53
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE
CWR.............40        40
LAL.............3         4
Temp............88        90
RH..............23        16
20 FT wind......E 5G6     NE 5G6
Mix hgt (ft)....9500      14200
Transport wind..E 10      NE 9
Haines index....4         5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly clear.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the evening, then slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms ending by late evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2000, then 2 until 2300, then 1.
Min temperature.....64-67 degrees.
Max humidity........59-62 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 5 to 8 mph early in the evening, then
                    shifting to the southwest 6 to 11 mph early in
                    the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL decreasing to 100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 6 knots shifting to the west 5 to
                    6 knots early in the evening, then shifting to
                    the southwest 5 to 9 knots in the late evening
                    and overnight.

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........59        59        35        35
Weather cov.....CHANCE    S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE    S CHC
CWR.............30        20        10        10
LAL.............3         2         1         1
Temp............86        76        71        68
RH..............18        29        44        54
20 FT wind......NE 4G6    S 6G7     SW 8G12   SW 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....9600      100       100       100
Transport wind..N 6       SW 6      SW 9      SW 7
Haines index....5         5         5         4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly sunny. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent increasing to 40 percent by mid day.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 3.
Max temperature.....86-89 degrees.
Min humidity........21-24 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    southeast early in the morning, then shifting
                    to the southwest early in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL increasing to 12400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 4 to 5 knots shifting to the west late in
                    the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........16        4         71        71
Weather cov.....                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    CHANCE    CHANCE
CWR.............0         0         40        40
LAL.............1         1         3         4
Temp............66        80        85        86
RH..............60        40        32        25
20 FT wind......SW 5G6    SE 5G6    SE 5G6    W 5G6
Mix hgt (ft)....1000      5600      11800     8900
Transport wind..S 5       SE 4      NE 5      N 6
Haines index....4         3         3         4

$$
Forecaster...MEYER
Requested by...ERIC SMITH
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417458.0/TWC
.DELDT 07/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL aztdc@firenet.gov

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