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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
241 FXUS65 KTWC 011956 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1256 PM MST Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday and gradually diminish during the rest of the week. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. Daytime temperatures will trending hotter by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Cloud debris cleared out by the late morning and towering cumulus clouds developed around 11 AM MST. The surface temperatures warmed 2-5 degrees more than yesterday which brings the environment to be more unstable and favorable conditions for thunderstorms. A handful of storms have been developing in the last hour around the region with storms producing 35 mph gusts and rain amounts around 0.25 inches. Storms don`t seem very tall and could struggle to punch up higher. Most of the storms will generally produce lightning, gusty winds up to 40 mph, and localized rainfall. The latest HRRR run shows this thunderstorm trend to continue through the rest of the afternoon and dissipating shortly after sunset. Moisture will stick around for the next several days to bring scattered thunderstorm chances for most of the region. The upper level pattern will be transitioning with the high pressure moving away to the east and new high pressure center forming along the west coast. Ensemble models show the new high will position itself over the Great Basin and it will kick out the atmospheric moisture. This will reduce thunderstorm chances towards the last half of the week and it will bring hotter temperatures back. There is a 38% chance for Tucson to reach 110F on Friday, but there is some uncertainty on the strength and placement of the ridge axis over the area. Overall, dryer and hotter temperatures will be returning by the weekend and into the new week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds at 9-12k ft AGL with cirrus shield at 20K ft AGL through the forecast period. Scattered -TSRA through 02/02Z and again returning after 02/18Z to the end of the forecast period. Expect brief MVFR conds near storms. SFC winds 10 kts or less with the occasional afternoon gusts, except stronger due to gusty outflows from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for scattered thunderstorms and showers for the first half of the week and then diminishing towards the end of the week. Moisture will slowly erode away towards the end of the week and bringing min relative humidities down towards the 10-18% range for the lower elevations and 18-25% range in the higher elevations. Dryer air will be moving into the region along with hotter temperature by the end of the week and into the new week. Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon with the occasional gust of 20-25 mph. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson