933
FXUS64 KTSA 062310
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
610 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

An absolutely beautiful day is in progress across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west central Arkansas, with seasonal
temperatures, dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s, light
winds and plenty of sun. The nice weather will continue through
much, if not all, of the overnight, with low temperatures a couple
of degrees below seasonal normals. Expect an increase in
cloudiness toward daybreak in areas northwest of I-44 as a
thunderstorm complex approaches from western/central Kansas. The
main source of forecast uncertainty tonight is whether the complex
moves into the forecast area before or after daybreak. The bulk
of the guidance points toward a daytime arrival, and as such, will
keep the forecast dry through 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The aforementioned thunderstorm complex is expected to move into
parts of northeast Oklahoma Sunday morning, likely in a declining
state intensity-wise given the lower instability this far east.
Areas along and north of I-44 have a medium to high chance to see
showers and thunderstorms during the morning, although the chance
of severe weather is low. Additional storms should develop during
the afternoon and evening, again to the north and west of the
area, and move through the area overnight. Higher instability
positioned across the western half of Oklahoma and the location of
the upper level support will favor areas just west of the
forecast area for severe weather and the higher rainfall totals.

Into the day Monday, the focus for additional thunderstorms should
be across southeast Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas given
the moisture moving into that part of the area ahead of Beryl.
That same area will remain the focus into mid week, as the
remnants of Beryl move across the ArkLaTex. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible on the southeast fringes of the forecast area as
the remnants move across, but the highest totals remain likely to
stay just to the east. A period of dry weather should arrive by
Wednesday night as Beryl is caught up in the upper level trough
and carried northeastward away from the region.

Low thunderstorm chances will continue at times late in the week
and into the weekend until upper level ridging begins to build
into the area next weekend. How quickly that occurs remains
uncertain, but it does look like our break in the heat for much of
this weekend and the upcoming work week will come to an end either
next weekend or into the following work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the overnight hours. Showers
and storms will move into NE OK after sunrise with initial
eastward extent somewhat uncertain. Eventually a steady east and
south expansion of convection is expected from mid morning through
afternoon with NE OK terminals most likely to be impacted. By mid
to late afternoon additional storms may develop along residual
outflow boundaries and there is potential for expanding coverage
of showers and thunderstorm just beyond this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  89  68  84 /   0  50  70  60
FSM   71  96  73  88 /   0  10  50  60
MLC   70  93  69  84 /  10  20  60  60
BVO   66  85  65  83 /  10  60  80  50
FYV   68  93  68  86 /   0   0  50  70
BYV   68  94  68  85 /   0   0  50  70
MKO   69  92  68  83 /  10  20  50  60
MIO   68  90  67  83 /   0  20  60  50
F10   69  91  67  82 /   0  30  60  60
HHW   70  92  71  86 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07