730
FXUS64 KTSA 060217
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
917 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Very light shower activity across SE OK
has dissipated this evening. Only some mid and
high clouds to contend with, but cloud cover should
lessen during the overnight period. Cool ridge of
surface high pressure in place will allow overnight low
temperatures to to fall below seasonal averages. Current
forecast looks in good shape heading into the overnight
hours, therefore no update is planned at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For the most part, upper level troughing should persist in the
Central United States through the weekend and into next week,
leading to a continued active weather pattern. Saturday and
Saturday night should be dry, with the bulk of the data indicating
the expected MCS activity holding off until Sunday and Sunday
night. Uncertainties persist regarding how the Sunday-Sunday night
MCS will evolve, with potential for a decaying one approaching
Sunday morning and additional storms developing afternoon and
evening with daytime heating. One thing that has remained fairly
consistent is that the heaviest rain/flooding potential and
likely the greater potential for severe weather should occur to
the west of the area, with parts of eastern Oklahoma on the edge.
Into Monday, additional storms should develop farther to the north
and east along a front that will move through the area in response
to an upper level disturbance. This batch of showers and
thunderstorms looks to bring a greater chance for heavy rain and
flooding this far east, especially given how much rain happened
last night in some areas. A Flood Watch may eventually be
necessary once confidence increases in the timing and location of
the heavier rains.

Into Tuesday and Wednesday, the remnants of Beryl look to move
northeastward across the ArkLaTex on the eastern edge of the upper
trough. This increase in moisture should lead to an uptick in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms across parts of southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas during this time frame, but for
now, it continues to look like the heavier rains will stay just to
our east. Still time for this to change, however.

For the latter part of the week, near normal temperatures and only
low chances for additional showers and thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  92  71  92 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   71  94  71  95 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   67  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   63  92  66  90 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   64  92  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   64  91  67  94 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   67  90  68  91 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   64  90  67  90 /   0   0  10  30
F10   66  89  67  90 /  10   0  10  30
HHW   70  89  69  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05