139
FXUS64 KTSA 041900
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Both excessive heat and thunderstorm/severe weather concerns will
continue into the evening hours of your Independence Day for most
of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Regarding the heat, the existing Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat
Warning will be left alone for now, with most of the area seeing
heat index values in the triple digits. It remains expected that
portions of the advisory and/or warning may be able to be
cancelled early, depending on how early thunderstorm development
occurs this afternoon/evening.

Now for the thunderstorm and severe weather expectations, the
overall thinking from earlier today remains largely intact, with
CAMs consistently showing development mid to late this afternoon
along a pre-frontal wind shift, followed by early to mid evening
development to the north along the cold front, which will sweep
southward overnight. A peek at the structure of the CU out our
west windows reinforces the likelihood of the aforementioned mid
to late afternoon development. DCAPE and forecast soundings
remain supportive of a largely damaging wind threat, although
effective bulk shear values and high CAPE could also lead to a
hail threat. Overall, the severe weather threat should decrease
toward early Friday morning, although the lightning threat will
not be as quick to wane. Heavy rainfall remains a concern as well
given the high precipitable water values present.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Much more pleasant conditions are expected to persist from
tomorrow well into next week in the wake of tonight`s cold frontal
passage, with temperatures nearer to seasonal normals and lower
dew points. Showers and thunderstorms should linger to some extent
post-daybreak tomorrow to the south of I-40, with a likelihood of
little to no severe weather potential remaining. Dry weather
should extend from tomorrow night through Saturday night, but the
dry period will likely be short lived, given persistent troughing
expected to be in the vicinity allowing for multiple disturbances
to move through the area. In addition, moisture should steadily
climb, especially in southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas,
through next week. The combination of the increased moisture and
upper level disturbances will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
in the forecast through at least mid week. Sunday night and into
Monday remains the most likely time frame for extensive
thunderstorms from MCS activity, including some severe weather
and heavy rain/flooding potential, although those details remain
somewhat uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are expected to spread
over the CWA this afternoon as a surface boundary moves over
Northeast Oklahoma. Convection initiation remains forecast along
and near this boundary starting mid afternoon and spreading east
southeast through the region this evening/tonight. Have added VCTS
and Tempo groups for timing to all TAF sites. Within the
convection will be the potential for gusty to strong
winds...locally heavy rainfall and brief MVFR conditions. A cold
front will then push through the CWA this evening/tonight behind
the initial line of convection with additional showers/storms
possible into the overnight hours from north to south. For now
have added VCTS/VCSH for timing of this second round of precip.
Some scattered/broken MVFR conditions are possible again with the
front. Behind the front...scattered to broken high clouds are
forecast into Friday morning. There are some indications that some
patchy areas of reduced visibility may develop early Friday
morning near the Kansas and Missouri borders...though for now will
hold off on mentioning in the TAFs. Winds through the period start
out south to southwest...become variable with the precip and then
shift out of the west to north behind the cold front tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  66  93 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   75  92  68  94 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   72  88  65  92 /  70  30   0  10
BVO   65  88  61  92 /  50   0   0  10
FYV   69  88  62  92 /  60  10   0   0
BYV   69  86  62  90 /  70   0   0   0
MKO   70  87  65  90 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   66  85  63  90 /  70   0   0   0
F10   70  86  65  90 /  70  20   0   0
HHW   73  87  68  89 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-063-
     064-068-069-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...20