![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
301 FXUS64 KTSA 081125 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 625 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today thru Tuesday morning) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A band of scattered storms, stretching from near Tulsa and extending NE roughly along I-44, is occurring along a weak H85 front in advance of an approaching upper trough. This activity should fade by early to mid morning, with some redevelopment possible this afternoon across far NE OK as the boundary lifts north. Focus then shifts to our south with the approach of Beryl. The system is being drawn north by the aforementioned upper trough, which it will eventually merge with as the system recurves to the northeast over the ArkLaTex and then thru central AR tonight into Tuesday. Bands of thunderstorms will begin developing across southeast OK and west-central AR by early afternoon and will spread north thru the afternoon with gusty wind and locally heavy rain potential. The right front quadrant of the system, an area well known for increased tornadic potential in landfalling tropical systems, is expected to stay just to the east of the forecast area given the current forecast track. By tonight, a swath of tropical rain (probably not much lightning at all) in association with the core of Beryl will lift up into far SE OK and NW AR, and then exit on Tuesday morning as the now remnant low of Beryl moves away from the region. Wind gusts will pick up as well tonight into Tuesday morning with the closest approach of the low pressure, especially in the terrain of the Ouachitas, where gusts to near advisory strength are possible. Given the combination of today`s round of heavy rain producing storms and the core rains of Beryl tonight into Tuesday morning, widespread 2 to 3 inch rains are forecast across far SE OK up into NW AR, with locally heavier amounts. With some potential for flash flooding from these rains, along with coordination from neighboring offices, a flood watch has been issued for this afternoon thru midday Tuesday. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The remnant low of Beryl will be moving away from the region by Tuesday afternoon, and will be the lead in to a much quieter part of the forecast. The general consensus of the models is that the central CONUS trough will shift east and mid-level heights will rise over Oklahoma and Arkansas as the western CONUS ridge shifts east. It is worth noting that the 00Z runs of the EC and GFS are not as pronounced with the ridging aloft, but we`ll see if this is a trend. The consensus dry forecast with a warming trend back into the upper 90s to near 100 by late in the week and into the weekend will be maintained for now. Lacy && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the morning and likely at least part of the afternoon, before shower and thunderstorm coverage increases later today. As more widespread rain moves in from the south from afternoon into the evening, a general deterioration in flight conditions can be expected, with most of SE OK and western AR eventually seeing prevailing MVFR conditions. AT least temporary reductions to IFR will be possible in heavy rain showers tonight, with east winds increasing at KFSM with strong LLWS by the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 68 85 66 / 60 60 30 10 FSM 84 68 81 66 / 80 90 80 10 MLC 81 67 83 64 / 90 70 40 10 BVO 84 68 85 63 / 40 60 20 0 FYV 83 66 76 61 / 70 80 80 20 BYV 86 66 74 61 / 70 90 90 20 MKO 84 67 83 64 / 80 70 50 10 MIO 84 67 81 62 / 50 70 50 10 F10 82 67 83 64 / 80 60 40 10 HHW 81 68 82 65 / 80 80 40 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ049-053-072-074>076. AR...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...14