![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
304 FXUS64 KTSA 012252 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 552 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon ) Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Very hot and humid conditions will prevail the remainder of the day with heat indices of 100-115F. The higher heat indices will be in the lower elevation areas of eastern OK and the lower values in the higher terrain of northwest AR. An Excessive Heat Warning in in effect for portions of eastern OK with a Heat Advisory for most of the rest of the area. Tonight will be quiet with lows ranging from the low 70s to near 80 F. A very isolated shower is possible this afternoon but most areas will be dry. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Over the next few days the pattern will largely be stationary. The big picture will feature an elongated ridge from central Texas towards North Carolina. Meanwhile, a trough will dig across the northern Plains. This will result in a boundary setting up to the north of the area, where repeated rounds of convection will develop and gradually force this boundary south. For eastern OK and northwest AR, we can expect several days of very warm and humid conditions. NBM is probably running a bit low with dew points the next several days, so increased values slightly to account for the apparent dry bias. Specific humidity in the lower atmosphere will continue to run near the 99th percentile for this time of year. High temperatures were also nudged slightly downward, but will still be quite hot in the mid 90s to low 100s for most areas. Overnight lows in the mid 70s to low 80s are expected. Widespread afternoon heat indices of 105 F or greater are likely through Thursday with pockets of heat indices values of 110+ also expected. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for much of the area tomorrow with Head Advisories everywhere else. Additional heat products are expected in the coming days. By Wednesday evening, the boundary may shift far enough south for a few isolated storms to move into far northern OK. Then on Thursday (Independence Day), the boundary will move into the area as a cold front, bringing increased storm chances. With elevated PWAT values near 2", any storms will be capable of heavy rainfall. Ensemble cluster analysis shows that roughly 40% of ensemble members are more favorable for rain, and in these cases it is because the trough axis is a little sharper and further to the southwest, which presumably results in better dynamics for lift. Behind the front, somewhat cooler and drier conditions will develop. On Friday, the front will move into southeast OK, pulling the best chance of rain to the south, with the front washing out by Saturday. During the day Saturday southerly flow resumes with the hot and humid air sloshing back through the forecast area. This airmass will persist for multiple days with additional heat headlines next week certainly possible. Ensemble guidance favors another rain chance towards the end of next week but there is significant uncertainty with respect to the forecast details. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Inserted VCTS for the KFSM TAF with isolated storm nearby, but this should be done by 02Z. VFR conditions will prevail thru the period with just a few passing high clouds overnight and on Tuesday. Some cu development is expected by Tuesday afternoon near the W AR TAF sites. No rain or storm mention is needed. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 80 101 82 100 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 74 99 79 101 / 10 0 0 10 MLC 78 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 77 101 77 97 / 0 0 10 20 FYV 71 95 76 98 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 69 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 76 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 75 97 78 96 / 0 0 10 20 F10 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 76 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-058- 063-068-069. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-057-058- 062-068-072-076. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070>076. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070-071-073>075. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010- 011. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...30