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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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730 FXUS64 KTSA 060217 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 917 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 916 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Very light shower activity across SE OK has dissipated this evening. Only some mid and high clouds to contend with, but cloud cover should lessen during the overnight period. Cool ridge of surface high pressure in place will allow overnight low temperatures to to fall below seasonal averages. Current forecast looks in good shape heading into the overnight hours, therefore no update is planned at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 For the most part, upper level troughing should persist in the Central United States through the weekend and into next week, leading to a continued active weather pattern. Saturday and Saturday night should be dry, with the bulk of the data indicating the expected MCS activity holding off until Sunday and Sunday night. Uncertainties persist regarding how the Sunday-Sunday night MCS will evolve, with potential for a decaying one approaching Sunday morning and additional storms developing afternoon and evening with daytime heating. One thing that has remained fairly consistent is that the heaviest rain/flooding potential and likely the greater potential for severe weather should occur to the west of the area, with parts of eastern Oklahoma on the edge. Into Monday, additional storms should develop farther to the north and east along a front that will move through the area in response to an upper level disturbance. This batch of showers and thunderstorms looks to bring a greater chance for heavy rain and flooding this far east, especially given how much rain happened last night in some areas. A Flood Watch may eventually be necessary once confidence increases in the timing and location of the heavier rains. Into Tuesday and Wednesday, the remnants of Beryl look to move northeastward across the ArkLaTex on the eastern edge of the upper trough. This increase in moisture should lead to an uptick in coverage of showers and thunderstorms across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas during this time frame, but for now, it continues to look like the heavier rains will stay just to our east. Still time for this to change, however. For the latter part of the week, near normal temperatures and only low chances for additional showers and thunderstorms are expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 68 92 71 92 / 0 0 10 30 FSM 71 94 71 95 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 67 91 69 92 / 10 10 10 20 BVO 63 92 66 90 / 0 0 10 40 FYV 64 92 67 93 / 0 0 10 10 BYV 64 91 67 94 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 67 90 68 91 / 0 0 10 20 MIO 64 90 67 90 / 0 0 10 30 F10 66 89 67 90 / 10 0 10 30 HHW 70 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...05