055
FXUS64 KTSA 031712
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Showers persist late this morning near the Kansas border but
should continue its current decrease in coverage into early
afternoon. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development remains expected mid to late afternoon into the
evening, focused across northeast Oklahoma and into far northwest
Arkansas. Instability levels will support a localized severe wind
threat with the strongest storms. The previous forecast had the
general trends handled well and only minor tweaks - namely to
increase POPs through the rest of the morning with the ongoing
activity and also to spread the low POPs late this afternoon
further south given data from recent CAMs.

The ongoing showers and residual cloud cover do make the
temperature and heat index forecast somewhat problematic, with
highs likely to be lower than previously forecast on the northern
fringes of the forecast area. Have lowered forecast highs some
using the short-term consensus blend and some tweaks to such
according to current observations. This, of course, decreases the
expected afternoon heat index values in mainly Osage and Pawnee
counties but not enough to justify cancelling the existing Heat
Advisory there, especially given the current heat indices
observed by the Mesonet over eastern Pawnee and southeastern Osage
counties. Will monitor trends into early afternoon and adjust
these thoughts as necessary.

Updated forecast is already out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Cold front is forecast to stall near the I-44 corridor tonight
and will briefly lift back north into the day Thursday. Heat
indices will again be a concern and will go ahead and issue heat
advisory areawide. Majority of models, including several CAMS,
suggest scattered thunderstorms will develop along frontal
boundary by late afternoon with storms pushing across much of
northeast Oklahoma Thursday evening. Marginally severe hail and
damaging winds will be possible in the stronger storms. This
activity is expected to continue overnight as storms move through
the remainder of southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas
overnight.

Finally a break on Friday from the relentless heat of late,
behind cold front, with highs generally in the upper 80s in most
areas. A few lingering showers/thunderstorms will be possible
across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas before shifting
south by Friday evening.

Both GFS/ECMWF are in general agreement with another upper level
trough digging into the central/northern Plains on Sunday. There is
some potential for a MCS to develop to the north, potentially
impacting portions of the area Sunday night. Better moisture
return/instability may end of being slightly west of the area, but
still eastern Oklahoma could get clipped by eastern edge of
complex during this time.

Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for the early part
of next week as broad upper trough remains across the central/eastern
CONUS with at least low precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, although the
expectation of isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development this afternoon/evening and again overnight, would
likely bring brief category reductions if they occur on station.
BVO is the most likely terminal for this to occur, with 06-12Z
being the main time frame. This potential will be covered with a
PROB30 group. TUL/RVS and also FYV/XNA/ROG could also be impacted
this afternoon/early evening but with questions regarding
coverage, will cover with either a VCSH or VCTS mention.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  78 100  69 /  30  30  40  50
FSM  101  80 100  74 /  10   0  20  60
MLC   98  79  99  72 /  10   0  20  60
BVO   92  73  97  65 /  40  40  40  40
FYV   98  75  97  68 /  20  10  30  60
BYV   97  74  97  68 /  40  30  40  60
MKO  100  77  98  70 /  20  10  30  60
MIO   94  74  96  66 /  40  40  50  50
F10  100  77  99  69 /  20  10  30  70
HHW   98  77  97  73 /  10   0  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-
     063>065-068-069-073-075.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...22