212
FXUS64 KTSA 191913
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
213 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Chamber of Commerce weather (at least for mid July) this afternoon,
coming off the unseasonably cold start with temperatures starting
in the mid 50s in some locations. Cool conditions again expected
tonight with low temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024
A few scattered showers from overnight complex to the northwest could
move move into far northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning. Any storms
will likely be weakening by this time as a relatively dry air-
mass remains in place. Better precipitation chances are expected
Saturday night into Sunday as initial mid level wave/upper jet
streak moves through the region.

Longwave trough will remain over the central/southern Plains with
secondary disturbance/upper low approaching from the north Sunday
night. Another round of scattered showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms are expected Sunday night into Monday. Rainfall
totals through Monday will generally stay in the 0.5-1.0 inch
range, although locally higher amounts are possible in a few
locations.

Modest warming trend will develop for the middle to latter part of
the work next as upper ridging slowly builds in from the west. A few
isolated showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across far SE
OK/NW AR, mainly in the higher terrain areas. Main upper high will
remain over the desert Southwest, keeping temperatures near or only
slightly above normal.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Winds will be mostly light and out of the northeast this
afternoon, gradually shifting to southeasterly by Saturday
morning. There will be long periods of nearly calm wind speed with
a variable direction. Skies will remain mostly clear with patchy
high clouds and afternoon low level cumulus at times. By 18Z
Saturday a few showers and thicker cloud cover could begin to
impact northeast OK, but model guidance was too inconsistent to
include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  88  69  86 /   0  20  40  50
FSM   66  89  71  88 /   0   0  10  40
MLC   65  89  69  86 /   0  10  30  50
BVO   62  85  66  85 /   0  20  50  50
FYV   59  86  66  84 /   0   0  20  40
BYV   59  86  66  83 /   0   0  10  30
MKO   64  89  69  84 /   0  10  30  50
MIO   62  84  67  82 /   0  10  40  50
F10   64  89  69  85 /   0  10  40  50
HHW   65  89  69  86 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...06