665
FXUS64 KTSA 201041
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
541 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two may move
into the northwest part of the forecast area early this morning.
The eastward progression of any precipitation will be slow today,
with pops confined to parts of northeast Oklahoma through the
afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will remain well below normal,
with highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase across the area
tonight and Sunday as an upper level disturbance rotates around
the upper trough over the area. Some locally heavy rainfall
amounts will be possible, especially in northeast Oklahoma tonight
and early Sunday.

The upper trough will remain over the area for much of the next
week, but will gradually weaken and lift northeast leaving more of
a generalized upper weakness over the area by late week. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will continue through the early part of
the week, with convective chances lessening some later in the
week and becoming more diurnally driven. Temperatures will also
slowly increase next week, but likely continue to remain slightly
below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Scattered showers/storms to our west early this morning are expected
to diminish before impacting any TAF sites in northeast Oklahoma. There
will be a greater potential for showers/storms to impact area sites later
this evening and into the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail. However, MVFR conditions will be possible within thunderstorm areas.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  30
FSM   91  70  88  69 /  10  20  40  40
MLC   89  68  85  67 /  10  30  40  40
BVO   86  65  83  63 /  20  60  40  20
FYV   86  63  82  63 /  10  30  50  50
BYV   85  65  82  64 /  10  30  50  50
MKO   89  68  84  66 /  10  40  40  40
MIO   84  66  82  64 /  10  50  60  40
F10   89  68  84  65 /  10  50  50  30
HHW   89  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...10