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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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247 FXUS64 KTSA 160540 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 949 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Surface pressure gradient over the area should once again result in a light south wind maintaining itself much of the night. Expect some mid cloud to develop over nern OK later tonight, which will also tend to hold temps up some. Guidance continues to suggest some potential for widely scattered high-based showers/thunderstorms late tonight developing from this mid level cloud deck. Convection over far ern CO/wrn KS also expected to move across Kansas tonight, with outflow from that possibly reaching nern OK very late tonight. All in all, ongoing forecast trending well, and reflects low chances of late night high-based convection nern OK. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 One more hot day will occur Tuesday, and have issued a heat advisory for the entire forecast area. Once again, parts of the area may need to be upgraded to a warning, but concerns about the extent of morning cloud cover and potential elevated convection preclude a warning at this time. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as a frontal boundary moves south into the area, with a few severe storms possible across northwest Arkansas into northeast Oklahoma. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat. Shower and storm chances will continue Wednesday and possibly into Thursday in southern parts of the area as the frontal boundary continues south across the area. Much cooler temperatures will follow the passage of the front, with below normal temperatures expected from Wednesday through the weekend into early next week. Rain chances will increase again over the weekend into early next week as upper level impulses rotate south around the main upper trough that will reside near or just east of our forecast area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Scattered mid level cloud cover will increase over northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites tonight, with some isolated showers or storms possibly developing early this morning. Chances look too low currently to mention in TAFs but could be added in as trends evolve through the night. Otherwise breezy southerly winds will increase again during the morning and afternoon hours with them lessening somewhat as a boundary approaches northeast Oklahoma by mid afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will become possible along this boundary across NE OK and NW AR sites from mid afternoon through the evening hours. Reduced VSBYs will be the main impact to terminals along with gusty winds with the strongest storms. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 101 75 88 69 / 20 30 30 20 FSM 99 78 92 73 / 10 20 50 50 MLC 98 76 92 71 / 10 20 40 40 BVO 99 71 86 64 / 20 40 40 10 FYV 96 73 87 66 / 20 30 40 40 BYV 96 72 88 66 / 30 30 50 40 MKO 99 74 89 69 / 20 20 40 40 MIO 97 72 85 65 / 30 40 40 10 F10 100 75 90 69 / 10 20 40 30 HHW 97 76 94 71 / 10 20 30 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...69 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...04