638
FXUS64 KTSA 161742
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon ahead of
approaching cold front. Parts of east-central Oklahoma and west-
central Arkansas were upgraded to an excessive heat warning where
heat indices around 110 deg will be possible.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is still
possible across portions of northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon.
Although deep layer shear will be marginal, moderate instability
suggests the potential for locally damaging wind gusts in the
stronger cells. Update has been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Subtle vorticity max located in SW KS and downstream low level jet
extending through NW OK have aided expanding convection from
western OK through south central KS. This forcing regime will
slowly spread eastward along the corridor of mid level moisture
through the day with a gradual weakening of the low level winds.
Early day scattered convection will likely spread into NE OK with
decreasing coverage of showers and storms into early afternoon.
It is possible the elevated convection never really dissipates
this afternoon while isolated to scattered storms become possible
along a weak wind shift and/or differential heating boundaries.
Any late afternoon storms will be capable of locally damaging
winds given expected instability and deeply mixed boundary layer.
Uncertainty is high regarding the extent and duration of cloud
cover through the day which will impact temps to some degree,
however another hot and humid afternoon remains likely and the
current heat advisory fits the most likely afternoon conditions. A
scenario of lesser clouds by mid afternoon could support portions
of the advisory being upgraded to a heat warning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

While the exact trend in storm coverage and timing is uncertain
tonight through Wednesday, the idea of increasing coverage of
showers and storms does appear likely especially late tonight into
the day Wednesday. The combination of a well defined shortwave
trough and associated cold front passing through the region will
provide the needed lift with a corridor of deep moisture along the
frontal zone supporting the higher precip coverage. A few strong
to severe storms may be possible along with locally heavy rains.
Notably cooler temperatures arrive once the front passes with
below normal temperatures overspreading the region. The pattern
of ridging aloft through the western CONUS and downstream
troughing extending through the southern Plains appears likely to
persist into early next week. Daily shower and thunderstorm
chances along with below normal temperatures likely persist from
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Mid/high clouds continue to increase across northeast Oklahoma early
this afternoon ahead of MCV feature. Surface low, currently located
over southeast Kansas will continue sag south with frontal boundary.
Scattered storms are expected to develop across far northeast Oklahoma
by late afternoon, potentially spreading into northwest Arkansas by
early this evening. Lingering shower/thunderstorm chances will persist
overnight into Wednesday morning along/near frontal boundary. In general,
VFR conditions expected outside of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  89  69  90 /  60  40  20  10
FSM   80  94  73  89 /  30  60  50  30
MLC   77  92  71  88 /  30  40  40  20
BVO   72  87  64  89 /  60  40  10   0
FYV   73  89  66  86 /  60  60  40  20
BYV   72  87  66  85 /  60  60  40  10
MKO   76  89  69  88 /  30  40  40  10
MIO   72  86  65  85 /  60  50  10   0
F10   76  89  68  88 /  30  40  30  10
HHW   78  94  71  86 /  20  30  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>069-071-
     073.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ070-
     072-074>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12