Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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852 FXUS64 KTSA 170206 CCA AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tulsa OK 906 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 904 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 It`s been relatively quiet across much of the forecast area this afternoon and thus far this evening. A remnant MCV, currently situated over southwest MO, is causing thunderstorms across northern AR, just east of the forecast area. These storms are aided by modest WAA taking place ahead of the MCV. Trends in the hi-res model guidance suggest storms will build westward across far northwest AR, best chances in Carroll and Madison counties, over the next few hours. In addition to locally heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be the primary threats with any organized storm. Consistency in CAMs indicate additional storms developing across northeast OK and northwest AR after midnight tonight, likely due to a combination of a strengthening low-level jet and the approach of a southward-advancing frontal boundary. The highest chances of precipitation should remain north of the I-40 corridor (along and just north of the frontal boundary) through much of the overnight period, but isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop south of I-40 closer to daybreak tomorrow morning as the front continues to push south. Instability and 0-6 km shear are expected to decrease through as the night progresses, which should limit the severe potential. However, cannot completely rule out a few strong to severe storms, capable of producing marginally severe hail/wind gusts, with the stronger updrafts that occur. In addition, a flooding potential will exist overnight as locally heavy rainfall appears likely with heavier/training thunderstorms, particularly across northeast OK and northwest AR. The main changes that were made to this update were to adjust the PoPs through 12z. Additional adjustments will likely be needed through the night. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Storm chances will persist while trending southward into Thursday as the front continues a southward push. This will also mark the beginning of a prolonged stretch of below normal temperatures that will persist into at least early next week. The pattern of high amplitude ridging in the western CONUS and persistent downstream trough over the plains will result in essentially daily rain and thunderstorm chances, with a possible uptick in coverage over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage overnight, especially across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, as a frontal boundary sags south across the area. Showers and storms will diminish Wednesday morning, with additional storms possible later Wednesday afternoon, which may impact KMLC and KFSM. VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 101 76 88 70 / 10 60 40 10 FSM 99 79 92 73 / 20 50 50 50 MLC 99 77 90 70 / 20 40 30 40 BVO 99 71 90 64 / 10 50 40 10 FYV 98 73 87 67 / 20 70 60 30 BYV 98 72 86 66 / 20 70 70 30 MKO 97 76 88 69 / 10 50 40 30 MIO 97 72 86 65 / 10 50 50 10 F10 99 74 88 68 / 10 50 40 30 HHW 98 78 95 70 / 10 20 30 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...05