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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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459 FXUS64 KTSA 171538 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1038 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1038 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 MCV, currently located over north-central Oklahoma will drift into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. This feature, coupled with approaching cold front, should allow scattered storms to develop, mainly south of I-40. A few marginally severe storms will be possible across far southeast Oklahoma where instability will be maximized, however high clouds will limit heating to some extent. PWATs will remain near 2.00 inches along/south of front with locally heavy rainfall likely with any of the stronger storms. Current short term forecast generally on track but a few changes possible into the afternoon as convective trends become more certain. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Showers and storm chances will linger across far SE OK into Thursday before the cold front finally clears the local forecast area. Dry and cooler weather expected Friday. The weather pattern over the weekend into early next week will feature persistent troughing aloft extending through the southern Plains. Precip chances return as early as Saturday across NE OK and expand area wide by Sunday as the trough axis settles through the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along with below normal temperatures will extend through early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Showers and thunderstorms around the area currently should move off by mid to late morning, leaving behind VFR conditions for this afternoon. Some scattered MVFR ceilings are possible this morning within the areas of precipitation. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon and evening along a frontal boundary. Best chances will be across SE OK and NW AR sites. Lighting along with VSBY reductions due to heavy rainfall will be the main impacts to any terminals through the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 71 90 67 / 50 10 0 0 FSM 90 73 90 69 / 70 20 20 0 MLC 88 70 88 67 / 50 30 20 0 BVO 89 66 89 62 / 80 10 0 0 FYV 87 67 87 62 / 70 20 10 0 BYV 86 67 85 61 / 80 10 10 0 MKO 87 70 88 66 / 50 20 10 0 MIO 88 66 85 62 / 80 0 0 0 F10 88 69 88 65 / 50 20 10 0 HHW 93 71 85 69 / 50 50 40 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...04