923
FXUS64 KTSA 201723
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A decaying band of precipitation is moving into northeast OK, and
could bring a few showers as far east as the Tulsa area before it
falls apart. Otherwise, much of the day today will feature a mix
of clouds and sun with mild temperatures in the 80s to around 90F.
Some CAM guidance brings a reinvigoration of showers or
thunderstorms by mid afternoon, but more likely any widespread
storm activity will hold off until the evening or overnight as an
upper level feature approaches the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase across the area
tonight and Sunday as an upper level disturbance rotates around
the upper trough over the area. Some locally heavy rainfall
amounts will be possible, especially in northeast Oklahoma tonight
and early Sunday.

The upper trough will remain over the area for much of the next
week, but will gradually weaken and lift northeast leaving more of
a generalized upper weakness over the area by late week. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will continue through the early part of
the week, with convective chances lessening some later in the
week and becoming more diurnally driven. Temperatures will also
slowly increase next week, but likely continue to remain slightly
below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Much of the afternoon hours today will feature a mixture of clouds
and sun with SCT to occasionally BKN coverage near 5 kft with
additional high clouds at 15-25 kft. A few sprinkles will be
possible for TAF sites in eastern OK this afternoon. Winds will
mostly be less than 10 kts and out of the southeast.

Ceilings will develop and lower this evening and overnight,
possibly down to 3-4 kft by morning. Additionally, areas of
showers and storms will develop, with most TAFs carrying a 30%
chance of storms tonight. Storms will first move into northeast OK
this evening, spreading to other areas after midnight. The main
hazards will be lightning and heavy rain. Winds will mostly
remain light but could become gusty briefly by any storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  81  67  86 /  50  40  20  20
FSM   70  84  69  87 /  20  30  30  40
MLC   69  83  67  84 /  30  40  20  30
BVO   64  82  64  85 /  50  30  10  20
FYV   65  79  64  84 /  30  50  30  50
BYV   65  80  64  83 /  30  50  30  50
MKO   69  81  67  84 /  40  40  30  30
MIO   66  81  64  84 /  50  50  20  30
F10   68  82  67  84 /  50  50  30  30
HHW   70  85  69  84 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06