984
FXUS64 KTSA 190219
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
919 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 919 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Convective activity that occurred across far southeast OK earlier
this afternoon has since diminished and the rest of the
evening/night should be rain-free for all of eastern OK and
northwest AR. Surface high pressure will remain in control across
the forecast area tonight, maintaining a fairly cool and dry air
mass with light winds after midnight. Although a few mid/high
level clouds are possible from time to time, skies should stay
mostly clear.

For the evening update, decided to drop overnight low
temperatures a degree or two from the afternoon forecast package
with (assuming skies remain mostly clear and winds remain light) a
decent radiational cooling setup occurring tonight. Most
locations will see temperatures fall into the low-mid 60s (5 to 10
degrees cooler than seasonal average). Some of the coolest spots
tonight will be across the higher elevations in northwest AR and
in portions far northeast OK, where mid-upper 50s temps are
probable if the forecast verifies.

Finally, there is a low probability of light fog forming in
locations that picked up some rain earlier today, mostly impacting
Pushmataha and Choctaw counties. However, probabilities are too
low (< 20%) to include in the grids at this time.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A seasonably cool start is expected Friday morning with another
pleasant afternoon as surface ridge remains over the area.
Southerly winds will return on Saturday with increasing low level
moisture. A weak mid level disturbance will swing around base of
trough with increasing shower/thunderstorm chances Saturday into
Sunday. Deterministic GFS solution is more aggressive with wave
compared to EC with higher QPF across southeast Oklahoma. With the
large spread in the GEFS, the more broad and lower rainfall
amounts seems reasonable for now.

Another weak upper low will approach from the north on Monday as
long wave troughing remains over the central/southern Plains,
extending northeast into the Great Lakes region. Most areas will
receive at least some rainfall (0.25 inch) over the weekend into
early next week, with locally higher amounts with these two
systems. Increasing cloud cover/precip chances will likely keep
high temperatures several degrees below normal both Sunday/Monday.

Although a slow warming trend is expected into mid week, the overall
weather pattern will not significantly change with the upper trough
remaining over the region. Temperatures are forecast to stay near
or slightly below normal with a least low rain chances across SE
OK/NW AR through the extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Few to scattered mid and high clouds are forecast across the CWA
through the TAF period as surface high pressure remains to the
northeast of the region. In response...winds through the period
should continue to be light/variable to an easterly direction.
VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period for the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  88  67  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   66  88  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   65  87  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   59  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   58  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   60  83  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   63  86  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   60  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   64  87  65  87 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   68  87  66  88 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...20