Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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335 FXUS64 KTSA 020206 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 906 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 906 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 As of mid evening the dome of high pressure a loft remained the main feature over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. At the surface a weak boundary was positioned north to south near the Oklahoma Arkansas border. A few isolated showers/storms had developed along this boundary late this afternoon...though with the loss of daytime heating this activity had dissipated. Otherwise across the CWA...mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and temps in the 80s were common. Overnight tonight...the weak surface boundary is expected to remain near the Oklahoma Arkansas border with dewpoints in the 70s common to the west and 60s to the east. At the same time...east to southerly winds should continue overnight which will aid in low temps tonight varying from the upper 60s to upper 70s across the CWA. For the evening update...have added minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint trends as well as lows tonight based on the position of the boundary. Otherwise current forecast seems to be in good shape at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Over the next few days the pattern will largely be stationary. The big picture will feature an elongated ridge from central Texas towards North Carolina. Meanwhile, a trough will dig across the northern Plains. This will result in a boundary setting up to the north of the area, where repeated rounds of convection will develop and gradually force this boundary south. For eastern OK and northwest AR, we can expect several days of very warm and humid conditions. NBM is probably running a bit low with dew points the next several days, so increased values slightly to account for the apparent dry bias. Specific humidity in the lower atmosphere will continue to run near the 99th percentile for this time of year. High temperatures were also nudged slightly downward, but will still be quite hot in the mid 90s to low 100s for most areas. Overnight lows in the mid 70s to low 80s are expected. Widespread afternoon heat indices of 105 F or greater are likely through Thursday with pockets of heat indices values of 110+ also expected. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for much of the area tomorrow with Heat Advisories everywhere else. Additional heat products are expected in the coming days. By Wednesday evening, the boundary may shift far enough south for a few isolated storms to move into far northern OK. Then on Thursday (Independence Day), the boundary will move into the area as a cold front, bringing increased storm chances. With elevated PWAT values near 2", any storms will be capable of heavy rainfall. Ensemble cluster analysis shows that roughly 40% of ensemble members are more favorable for rain, and in these cases it is because the trough axis is a little sharper and further to the southwest, which presumably results in better dynamics for lift. Behind the front, somewhat cooler and drier conditions will develop. On Friday, the front will move into southeast OK, pulling the best chance of rain to the south, with the front washing out by Saturday. During the day Saturday southerly flow resumes with the hot and humid air sloshing back through the forecast area. This airmass will persist for multiple days with additional heat headlines next week certainly possible. Ensemble guidance favors another rain chance towards the end of next week but there is significant uncertainty with respect to the forecast details. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Inserted VCTS for the KFSM TAF with isolated storm nearby, but this should be done by 02Z. VFR conditions will prevail thru the period with just a few passing high clouds overnight and on Tuesday. Some cu development is expected by Tuesday afternoon near the W AR TAF sites. No rain or storm mention is needed. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 101 82 100 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 75 99 79 101 / 10 0 0 10 MLC 78 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 77 101 77 97 / 0 0 10 20 FYV 72 95 76 98 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 70 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 77 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 75 97 78 96 / 0 0 10 20 F10 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 76 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-058- 063-068-069. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010- 011. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...30