Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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287 FXUS64 KTSA 021719 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Another hot and humid day shaping up with heat headlines covering the entire forecast area. Highest dew points remain concentrated through eastern OK, although some lower values are present across central OK. Given a modest veering in sfc winds some of this "drier" air will push into far western areas, but that said dangerous heat and humidity with max HI values in the 105 to 115 range still warrant maintaining headlines as they are. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Upper ridge will begin to shift slowly east on Wednesday. This should allow a weak front to approach far northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas during the day with a few scattered showers/thunderstorms possible. Although deep layer shear will remain marginal, instability could be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with locally damaging winds. Hot and humid conditions will continue south of frontal boundary with heat indices at or above 105 degrees across much of the area. A broad mid level trough with embedded low will shift into the central/northern Plains on Thursday. Better shower/thunderstorm chances are expected with this system Thursday eve into Thursday night as cold front pushes through the region. A few of these storms could also be strong to severe. A significant break from the heat is expected on Friday behind front with some lingering showers/thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas during the day. In addition, temperatures should stay near normal through the weekend into early next week as a series of upper level waves traverse in stronger northwest flow aloft. At least low precip chances also expected through this period as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. SOuth winds will continue gusting in the 20-25 knot range into the early evening, before trending more light and variable tonight and Wed morning. Expect increase in mid clouds across NE OK very early Wed morning as weakening showers and thunderstorms track across southern KS. The may result in low prob of precip at KBVo as well as a shift to north winds for a time Wed AM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 100 80 98 79 / 0 10 20 20 FSM 99 80 101 79 / 0 0 20 0 MLC 98 79 99 78 / 0 0 20 0 BVO 100 75 92 74 / 0 20 30 20 FYV 96 77 97 75 / 0 10 30 10 BYV 96 77 95 73 / 0 10 40 20 MKO 97 78 98 77 / 0 10 20 20 MIO 97 76 91 75 / 0 30 30 30 F10 99 78 98 77 / 0 10 20 10 HHW 96 78 96 78 / 0 0 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-069. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049- 053>057-059>062-064>067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...14