Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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040 FXUS64 KTSA 052329 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 629 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Overall, the evening and overnight should be fairly quiet, with existing showers along and south of I-40 expected to continue to diminish through the afternoon. Cloud cover is also likely to decrease overnight from north to south. Surface high pressure will shift into the region, leading to light winds and seasonably cool temperatures, especially in northern areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 For the most part, upper level troughing should persist in the Central United States through the weekend and into next week, leading to a continued active weather pattern. Saturday and Saturday night should be dry, with the bulk of the data indicating the expected MCS activity holding off until Sunday and Sunday night. Uncertainties persist regarding how the Sunday-Sunday night MCS will evolve, with potential for a decaying one approaching Sunday morning and additional storms developing afternoon and evening with daytime heating. One thing that has remained fairly consistent is that the heaviest rain/flooding potential and likely the greater potential for severe weather should occur to the west of the area, with parts of eastern Oklahoma on the edge. Into Monday, additional storms should develop farther to the north and east along a front that will move through the area in response to an upper level disturbance. This batch of showers and thunderstorms looks to bring a greater chance for heavy rain and flooding this far east, especially given how much rain happened last night in some areas. A Flood Watch may eventually be necessary once confidence increases in the timing and location of the heavier rains. Into Tuesday and Wednesday, the remnants of Beryl look to move northeastward across the ArkLaTex on the eastern edge of the upper trough. This increase in moisture should lead to an uptick in coverage of showers and thunderstorms across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas during this time frame, but for now, it continues to look like the heavier rains will stay just to our east. Still time for this to change, however. For the latter part of the week, near normal temperatures and only low chances for additional showers and thunderstorms are expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 68 92 71 92 / 0 0 10 30 FSM 71 94 71 95 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 67 91 69 92 / 10 10 10 20 BVO 63 92 66 90 / 0 0 10 40 FYV 64 92 67 93 / 0 0 10 10 BYV 64 91 67 94 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 67 90 68 91 / 0 0 10 20 MIO 64 90 67 90 / 0 0 10 30 F10 66 89 67 90 / 10 0 10 30 HHW 70 89 69 90 / 10 10 10 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...05