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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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930 FXUS63 KTOP 060803 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 303 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances increase for areas along and north of Interstate 70 late this afternoon into the evening. Some storms could be severe with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard. - Additional rounds of showers and storms move through Sunday into Monday morning. Locally heavy rainfall with these storms will pose a risk for flooding. - Slightly below-normal temperatures expected Sunday and Monday before returning to near-normal values Tuesday-Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Northwest flow aloft continues across the Plains early this morning with surface ridging in control of the region. Light winds and clear skies have allowed temperatures to cool into the 60s. Dewpoint depressions are less than 5 degrees across the area, but elevated winds at and just off the surface have kept enough mixing to preclude fog development to this point. There could be some patchy fog through sunrise when any fog that does develop will quickly burn off. The surface high slides east through the day as a wave of energy dives southeast across the Dakotas. A surface low develops in response across eastern Colorado and western Kansas with modest southerly surface winds bumping temperatures into the mid 80s and low 90s this afternoon. The aforementioned wave and associated surface boundary will lead to convective development across Nebraska and western Kansas this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will lead to upscale growth of convection as it progresses east-southeast during the late afternoon and evening. Instability is rather weak for summertime standards (MUCAPE of less than 1000 J/kg), but 30-35 kts of effective shear and inverted-V soundings could support severe wind gusts as a line of storms moves into the area from the northwest between 5-7PM. The complex is expected to weaken as it pushes southeast into a less favorable environment, although CAMs are in good agreement in a stronger portion of the line continuing east across southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas at the nose of the LLJ. The severe threat ends by 10-11pm as storms continue to weaken and exit the area. Storm movement looks to be progressive enough to limit flooding concerns with this round of convection. There could be a lull in precipitation tonight into early Sunday before a couple additional waves of energy eject across the area into Monday morning. Moisture content rises with PWATs reaching 1.25- 1.70" and forecast soundings show skinny CAPE profiles and deep warm cloud processes. Heavy rainfall will be the main hazard with these storms; HREF members show the potential for a quick 1-1.5" of rain from any storm. However, the overall coverage of storms remains uncertain with CAMs suggesting more of a scattered to widely scattered coverage of storms. If storms are more widespread in nature or one area is impacted with a few rounds of storms, flooding will become more of a concern, especially given the wet antecedent conditions. Rain chances end by Monday afternoon and a quieter pattern sets up into the middle of next week. After a few cooler days with highs in the low 80s Sunday and Monday, temperatures return to near-normal values Tuesday through Friday with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions continue with light and variable winds overnight becoming southerly this afternoon. Showers and storms may move toward terminals late in the period, but confidence in coverage of precipitation is too low to include in TAF at this time. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan