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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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529 FXUS63 KTOP 110659 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 159 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated thunderstorm over far northeast KS may be capable of some damaging winds and hail. - Confidence in a heat wave impacting the region is good. Highs look to be in the triple digits for most areas Sun-Tue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low over the Great Lakes with ridging centered over the desert southwest. A shortwave was rotating through the middle MO river valley. Surface obs showed a weak pattern with weak high pressure over the Great Plains. A trough of low pressure along the northern high plains was gradually deepening. For tonight through Thursday evening, models show a conditionally unstable airmass remaining in place with little inhibition to convection. Any forcing or lift looks to remain subtle but think the wave over eastern NEB and IA could be enough for some isolated convection overnight. Forecast soundings show storms should be rooted near 800MB with elevated CAPE around 1100 J/kg. Bulk shear looks rather marginal so think the risk for severe weather remains marginal at best. Can`t rule out an isolated storm with some damaging winds though. A similar setup is progged by Thursday evening but the forcing looks even less obvious. Models do have a weak wind shift develop over northeast KS which may act as a focus for some low level lift. But CAMs show isolated convection at best and the NAM/GFS tend to keep QPF just east of the area. Have kept POPs around 10 percent after collaboration but later shifts may want to add a slight chance to the forecast. The main focus of the forecast will be the building heat through the weekend and into next week. Confidence in highs around 100 is improving as operational models show the upper ridge over the southwest expanding east over the central plains. This lines up well with the initialization from the NBM. As for headline concerns, the main question is whether dewpoints mix out into the lower 60s or possible the upper 50s. In the end this may keep heat indices a few degrees cooler and have hedged the forecast with dewpoints mixing out more. Still we see heat indicies around 105. So will start messaging the heat a little stronger. Precip chances look pretty slim with upper ridging and see no reason to deviate from the NBM initialization. The next organized chance for precip looks to be Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Models show shortwave energy passing across the northern plains and dampening the upper ridge, allowing a weak boundary to slide into the forecast area. Lift from the boundary could allow from some precip to develop and have some chance POPs for this potential. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the area over the first portion of the TAF period. Added mention of VCTS through the early morning hours this morning to account for this. Otherwise, winds will remain light and out of the east with mid level clouds scattering out into the afternoon today. There will be more chance for pop-up thunderstorms later in the TAF, but have kept mention out at this time due to lack of confidence. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Griesemer