Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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057 FXUS63 KTOP 071920 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 220 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Non-severe isolated to scattered showers and storms possible this afternoon through part of the evening across the area. - May still see locally heavy rainfall this afternoon / evening but no widespread flooding issues expected. - Dry through the week and warming up into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 No significant change in the UA pattern over the past 12-24 hrs. A broad long wave trough span from east to west from New England to the northern Rockies with axis extending through the central Plains region. Tropical Storm Beryl is nearing the southern Texas coastline. A semipermanent ridge of high pressure is set up over the west and has continued to build. Generally, have seen precipitation that is trying to develop over the area struggle. Several embedded shortwaves continue to enter the area but as one passes a general area of subsidence follows behind thus disturbing ascent needed to help develop more widespread showers and storms with lack of moist regeneration in the mid levels due to weak isentropic return. Instability is also generally on the weak side with lapse rates mostly around 6-6.5C/km. Better theta-e advection is off to the east of the area within the higher PW airmass. So, given that assessment, the shortwave working through northwestern KS into north-central areas, will continue to work east over the next several hours into the evening. Some convective elements have been observed within this mass of showers but again erosion of the eastern edge has been observed. Still have an opportunity for a few isolated to scattered moderate to heavy showers or storms to occur until this wave passes later this evening. Into Monday, the parent trough aloft finally begins to work east as the western ridge builds and expands east. Tropical Storm Beryl begins to phase with the long wave trough and transition to an extratropical cyclone into Tuesday. Should have northwest flow pattern for much of the work week across the area helping to keep temperatures near-normal overall. Heights generally rise with the western ridge holding and gradually expanding into the area by next weekend. This should help push temperatures back into the 90s and return heat to the area with overall warm dewpoints in place. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 No significant changes to the current forecast outside of delaying onset of any SHRA or TS for later this afternoon into early evening. Still not confident on how widespread showers or storms may become. May have to leave VCSH for the afternoon/evening as western showers appear to be eroding and diminishing in coverage. Still a chance for the atmosphere to destabilize this afternoon to help the upper wave regenerate showers and storms with eastward progression. Have identified the best timeframe for impacts should the forecast remain on track. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake