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FNUS75 KTFX 132328
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Black Canyon...DNRC County Assist Team
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
528 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1730 MDT on August 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A weak disturbance will continue to move over the fire area through
this evening, bringing at least scattered showers and thunderstorms.
These storms will produce frequent lightning, erratic gusts to 40
mph, brief heavy rain showers, likely with wetting rain, and possibly
some hail up to one half inch in diameter. The threat for storms will
then decrease overnight, but another chance for showers and storms
will develop Wednesday afternoon, but these storms will likely not be
as strong as those today. Otherwise, winds outside storms should
remain light and temperatures will remain slightly below normal.
Afternoon humidity will remain over 25 percent with good overnight
recovery. -Coulston

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Haze. Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................45 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....75-80.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........Southwest around 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Haze in the
                    evening. Rain showers likely and chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening, then slight
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................15 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 2.
Min temperature.....51-56.
Max humidity........80-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........West around 15 mph.
Haines Index........

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers through the day. Chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................15 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....68-73.
Min humidity........33-38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Northwest around 10 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Coulston
Requested by...Tom Kohley
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2420044.4/TFX
.DELDT 08/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tom_kohley@firenet.gov,mtgdc@firenet.gov,tfx.ops@noaa.gov