Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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Spot Forecast for Ridge Road Project Work...BLM
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1038 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MDT on July 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Unsettled northwest flow over the Northern Rockies and High Plains
will bring continued chances for showers and thunderstorms to
Central Montana through Thursday, with the most widespread
precipitation expected on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected from this afternoon through the
early evening hours tonight over and near the incident area, with
the "best chance" for precipitation directly impacting the
incident area between 1500 to 1900 local time. Precipitation
through today will generally be brief in nature, but could produce
a quick couple hundreths of rainfall with each shower or storm.
Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread on Wednesday,
with the probability for rainfall exceeding 0.25" being a 20%
chance. Gusty and erratic winds are possible with any shower or
storm through Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................15 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....74-79.
Min humidity........38-43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds around 15 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........62     65     71
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............20     20     20
LAL.............3      3      3
Temp............74     74     73
RH..............45     45     46
20 ft wind......NW 15  NW 15  NW 15
20 ft wind gust.25     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....7500   7000   5000
Transport wind..W 20   NW 25  NW 25
Haines index....5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2300, then 1.
Min temperature.....52-57.
Max humidity........76-81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    west around 5 mph late in the evening. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph shifting to the west 10
                    to 15 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........80     66     57     54     54     56
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............3      3      3      1      1      1
Temp............71     67     62     59     57     56
RH..............48     55     66     74     79     79
20 ft wind......NW 15  NW 10  NW 10  W 5    W 5    W 5
20 ft wind gust.20     15     15     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....3500   2000   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..NW 20  W 15   W 10   W 10   W 10   W 10
Haines index....5      5      M      M      M      M

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the morning, then rain
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 30 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 2 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....71-76.
Min humidity........45-50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 15 mph late in the morning.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 20 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth early in the morning.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........59     55     61     76     77     75
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............10     10     10     30     30     30
LAL.............2      2      2      3      3      3
Temp............54     60     67     70     71     71
RH..............81     70     58     50     50     51
20 ft wind......W 5    W 10   W 10   W 15   NW 15  NW 15
20 ft wind gust.10     15     20     20     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1500   3500   6000   7000   6000
Transport wind..W 10   W 15   W 15   W 20   NW 20  NW 20
Haines index....M      4      4      4      4      4

$$

Forecaster...Moldan
Requested by...Raven Rios
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2417203.0/TFX
.DELDT 07/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL MTLEC@firenet.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov