Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
936 FNUS75 KTFX 021638 FWSTFX Spot Forecast for Ridge Road Project Work...BLM National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1038 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MDT on July 02. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Unsettled northwest flow over the Northern Rockies and High Plains will bring continued chances for showers and thunderstorms to Central Montana through Thursday, with the most widespread precipitation expected on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected from this afternoon through the early evening hours tonight over and near the incident area, with the "best chance" for precipitation directly impacting the incident area between 1500 to 1900 local time. Precipitation through today will generally be brief in nature, but could produce a quick couple hundreths of rainfall with each shower or storm. Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread on Wednesday, with the probability for rainfall exceeding 0.25" being a 20% chance. Gusty and erratic winds are possible with any shower or storm through Thursday. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. CWR.................15 percent. LAL.................3. Max temperature.....74-79. Min humidity........38-43 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Northwest winds around 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 25 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........62 65 71 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CWR.............20 20 20 LAL.............3 3 3 Temp............74 74 73 RH..............45 45 46 20 ft wind......NW 15 NW 15 NW 15 20 ft wind gust.25 25 25 Mix hgt (ft)....7500 7000 5000 Transport wind..W 20 NW 25 NW 25 Haines index....5 5 5 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the evening. CWR.................5 percent. LAL.................3 until 2300, then 1. Min temperature.....52-57. Max humidity........76-81 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west around 5 mph late in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph shifting to the west 10 to 15 mph in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........ TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........80 66 57 54 54 56 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.............3 3 3 1 1 1 Temp............71 67 62 59 57 56 RH..............48 55 66 74 79 79 20 ft wind......NW 15 NW 10 NW 10 W 5 W 5 W 5 20 ft wind gust.20 15 15 10 10 10 Mix hgt (ft)....3500 2000 500 500 500 500 Transport wind..NW 20 W 15 W 10 W 10 W 10 W 10 Haines index....5 5 M M M M .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain showers in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms late in the morning, then rain showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. CWR.................5 percent increasing to 30 percent in the afternoon. LAL.................1 until 0900, then 2 until 1200, then 3. Max temperature.....71-76. Min humidity........45-50 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest around 15 mph late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest around 20 mph late in the morning. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth early in the morning. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........59 55 61 76 77 75 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CWR.............10 10 10 30 30 30 LAL.............2 2 2 3 3 3 Temp............54 60 67 70 71 71 RH..............81 70 58 50 50 51 20 ft wind......W 5 W 10 W 10 W 15 NW 15 NW 15 20 ft wind gust.10 15 20 20 25 25 Mix hgt (ft)....500 1500 3500 6000 7000 6000 Transport wind..W 10 W 15 W 15 W 20 NW 20 NW 20 Haines index....M 4 4 4 4 4 $$ Forecaster...Moldan Requested by...Raven Rios Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2417203.0/TFX .DELDT 07/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL MTLEC@firenet.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov