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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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924 FXUS65 KTFX 070216 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 816 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms diminish in coverage this evening and tonight. High pressure begins to build in on Sunday for warmer and drier conditions. The warming trend significantly increases next week with an extended period of very warm to hot temperatures expected through at least the weekend. && .Update... Minimal updates this evening, mainly to linger low (15%) PoPs through the night along the Continental Divide and then across portions of Hill, Blaine, Chouteau, and Fergus Counties. Shower and thunderstorm coverage has been decreasing throughout the early evening hours across the CWA; however, another weak shortwave within northwest flow aloft will slide southeast and over North Central and Central Montana through the overnight hours tonight, providing another opportunity for a few showers and storms into Sunday morning. Additionally, inserted patchy fog mention for Sunday morning given overall clear skies and light winds overnight outside of the aforementioned shower activity. Latest HREF probabilities support a 10-20% chance for patchy fog by Sunday morning, particularly in and near the river valleys of North Central through Southwest Montana. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 07/00Z TAF Period Isolated showers will continue pushing towards the southeast over the next couple hours. The highest confidence for impacts is at KHVR where light showers are possible through 07/02Z. Thunderstorm activity has decreased significantly within the last hour and is not expected to ramp up again before sunset. Therefore, thunder was left out of the TAFs. Overall, showers are expected to taper off by 07/05Z, giving way to clearing skies and VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. -thor Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024/ Remainder of this afternoon through Sunday night...Showers and embedded thunderstorms from this morning have mostly moved east of the CWA, but a more scattered variety of showers and storms will continue to fire up over Central/North-central MT and southwestern locations mostly north of I90 with the assistance of weak perturbations within the northwesterly flow aloft and diurnal heating. Although ML CAPE levels are approaching and exceeding 500 J/kg in spots, bulk shear mostly less than 20 kts will limit storm strength and temporal longevity. Regardless, even general thunderstorms such as these may produce gusty and erratic winds, small hail, and brief downpours in addition to lightning. Most showers and storms diminish and end this evening, but a few lighter showers may linger into the overnight hours. - RCG The building upper level ridge begins to nudge eastward Sunday, though northwesterly flow will persist for one more day across the region. There doesn`t look to be any embedded waves diving southeastward through this flow however, so chances for showers and thunderstorms look to decrease quite a bit. Given lingering moisture and marginally cool temperatures aloft remaining in place, showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will remain in the forecast on Sunday, particularly over over higher terrain. Monday through next weekend...The aforementioned upper level ridge will continue to slowly shift eastward, inland across the western CONUS Monday into the middle of next week. A warming trend will commence as a result, with temperatures pushing well into the 90`s at lower elevations by Wednesday. The brute of the heat looks to peak around Thursday, but an increasing share of longer range ensemble members favor well above average temperatures persisting into at least next weekend. - AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 50 82 55 88 / 10 10 0 0 CTB 49 83 52 88 / 20 10 0 0 HLN 53 87 58 92 / 20 10 0 0 BZN 45 80 51 87 / 20 20 0 0 WYS 36 75 38 80 / 20 20 0 0 DLN 45 79 49 86 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 50 82 55 90 / 30 20 0 0 LWT 47 74 50 83 / 20 20 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls