606
FXUS65 KTFX 070844
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
244 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Drier and warmer conditions develop today under a northwest flow
aloft. Much warmer temperatures develop by the middle of the
upcoming week as strong upper level high pressure moves inland with
hottest temperatures likely as the ridge shifts across the region
Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The area remains under a somewhat cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft
this morning on the western periphery of larger scale troughing
across the central US/Canada. A subtle mid-upper level disturbance
moving through the NW flow is producing mid-level clouds and widely
scattered sprinkles/showers across some areas early this morning,
but expect this activity to decrease fairly quickly after 6am as the
disturbance exits and drier/warmer air aloft begins to build into
the area from the west and northwest. Warming and drying aloft will
support more stable conditions today with some terrain generated
cumulus this afternoon leading to a very low (<20%) probability of
an isolated shower over the central MT mountains with otherwise dry
and mainly sunny conditions across the area.

A strong upper level ridge with axis currently extending from CA
north and just offshore of the Pacific NW will gradually shift
inland through the early part of this week. Temperatures will be
close to seasonal averages across the area today, warming to 5-15
degrees above seasonal averages Monday and Tuesday. The hottest
temperatures are likely to occur as the upper ridge slumps east
across the Northern Rockies and MT Wednesday and Thursday with
daytime maximum temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s for many
lower elevation areas and near daily records for some locations,
particularly on Thursday. There remains a risk for some locations,
especially the Helena area, to see max temperatures reach or exceed
100F later this week (see table below). Temperatures may moderate
slightly as the upper ridge flattens some Friday into next weekend
but are expected to remain well above average with daytime
temperatures in the 90s most likely to persist through the weekend
across SW MT valleys. Hoenisch

Probability of daytime maximum temperatures reaching 100F or higher:

            Wed  Thu  Fri
Bozeman     15%  20%  20%
Cut Bank     2%   3%   0%
Dillon       0%   0%   0%
Great Falls 20%  20%   5%
Havre        5%  20%   0%
Helena      65%  55%  20%
Lewistown    0%   0%   0%

&&

.AVIATION...
07/06Z TAF Period

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to drop
southeastward across the region overnight. Looking ahead to Sunday,
the main concern at this time will be for widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over terrain late morning through
early evening. Otherwise, the only other concern will be for patchy
fog Sunday morning, but fog not forecast to impact terminals at this
time. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  55  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  83  53  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  87  58  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  80  51  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  73  39  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  78  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  83  54  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  74  51  83  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls