236
FXUS65 KTFX 060832
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
232 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Cooler than average temperatures persist for most areas through
Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be around again today, and to
a lesser extent tomorrow before a warming and drying trend commences
Monday. Hot temperatures look to last through the week and into
next weekend, with the only uncertainty related to exactly how hot
it will get.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Sunday night...Broad troughing in place across the central
and eastern CONUS, alongside a building ridge just off the coast of
the western CONUS has kept the Northern Rockies in a cool and
unsettled northwesterly flow aloft over the past five days or so.
This trend contiues through Sunday, with temperatures in most areas
continuing to stay below average for this time of the year. Showers
and thunderstorms appear to be mostly the afternoon variety today,
though an embedded wave within the northwesterly flow presently
diving southeastward from Canada along the Continental Divide will
allow for some morning showers and isolated thunderstorms across
portions of Central and North-central Montana. Given weak
instability and shear, thunderstorms today look to be unorganized in
nature.

The building upper level ridge begins to nudge eastward Sunday,
though northwesterly flow will persist for one more day across the
region. There doesn`t look to be any embedded waves diving
southeastward through this flow however, so chances for showers and
thunderstorms look to decrease quite a bit. Given marginally cool
temperatures aloft will still be around, showers and an isolated
thunderstorm or two will remain in the cards in the afternoon
Sunday, mostly over terrain.

Monday through next weekend...The aforementioned upper level ridge
will continue to slowly shift eastward, inland across the western
CONUS Monday into the middle of next week. A warming trend will
commence as a result, with temperatures pushing well into the 90`s
at lower elevations by Wednesday. The brute of the heat looks to
peak around Thursday, but an increasing share of longer range
ensemble members favor well above average temperatures persisting
into at least next weekend. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
06/06Z TAF Period

Next disturbance in NW flow aloft will spread mid level clouds and
widely scattered showers into N-central MT Saturday morning with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving southeast across
much of north-central and central MT Saturday afternoon.
Thunderstorm probabilities range from 20-30% at KHLN and KBZN to
around 50% at KHVR and KLWT. Brief/localized MVFR conditions are
possible near thunderstorms along with gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail across the area with skies clearing and showers
dissipating after 02z Sun. In addition to locally gusty winds near
thunderstorms, breezy northwest to north surface winds will spread
across the area on Saturday with winds diminishing Saturday evening.
Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  50  81  55 /  30  10  10   0
CTB  75  49  82  52 /  20  10   0   0
HLN  82  55  87  58 /  30  10  10   0
BZN  79  48  79  51 /  20  20  10   0
WYS  73  38  74  38 /  20  10  10   0
DLN  80  46  79  49 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  78  53  82  55 /  30  20  10   0
LWT  71  47  74  50 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls