499
FXUS65 KTFX 042332
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
530 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue daily through
Saturday for north central Montana with drier conditions expected
south of interstate 90. Temperatures will stay cooler through
Saturday before warming up next week. Well above normal
temperatures and dry conditions are expected through much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on and off
through Saturday afternoon as northwesterly flow aloft continues
to bring moisture and instability into the region. In general,
these storms are expected to stay below severe limits, however,
some small hail and gusty winds up to 55 mph are possible with
stronger showers. Temperatures closer to normal will stick around
through the weekend before warming up early next week. -thor

Sunday through Thursday...A strong upper level ridge of high
pressure is forecast to move over MT during this period. This will
result in a significant heat wave to move into the CWA by the
middle portion of next week. Depending on how far east the center
of high pressure goes, will depend on exactly how hot it gets.
However, most models prog afternoon temperatures close to at least
15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Additionally, the airmass
will be very dry under this ridge, so no precipitation is
expected. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
05/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions are mostly forecast to continue through at least
06/00Z across North Central (KCTB, KHVR), Central (KLWT, KGTF,
KHLN), and Southwest (KBZN, KEKS, KWYS) Montana. However, scattered
showers and thunderstorms lingering over much of Central Montana
through around 03Z will keep a chance for brief periods of MVFR
conditions in heavier rain and small hail. Some of these storms may
also produce erratic wind gusts up to 35 kt or so.

Partly cloudy skies will linger through the remainder of the period
with relatively light winds overnight. This may allow patchy fog to
form where heavier rain fell today, but confidence is low that it
will directly impact any of the terminals, so have left mention out
of the TAFs for now. The northwesterly flow aloft will increase after
12Z, increasing the threat for mountain wave turbulence. The airmass
should become weakly unstable again after 16Z, with the best chance
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly remaining
over the plains east of a KCTB to KGTF line. -Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  77  53  76 /  10  20  10  20
CTB  46  77  50  75 /  10  10  20  20
HLN  52  83  56  83 /   0  10  10  30
BZN  45  79  48  79 /   0  10   0  20
WYS  34  73  37  75 /   0  10   0  20
DLN  43  79  46  81 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  50  78  52  77 /  20  40  20  30
LWT  46  72  48  71 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls