111
FXUS65 KTFX 080839
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
239 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures trend warmer today, with the hottest temperatures
arriving for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures cool a touch for
the weekend, but are still forecast to be above average. Chances for
precipitation will remain low through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through the work week... An upper level ridge presently centered
over the west coast of the CONUS will be the driver of weather this
week across the Northern Rockies. Temperatures continue their
warming trend today and Tuesday as the ridge inches eastward. The
hottest days of the week look to be Wednesday and Thursday once the
ridge axis moves overhead. Highs Wednesday and Thursday look to
climb well into the 90`s at most lower elevation areas, with triple
digits in the cards in areas prone to the hottest temperatures such
as the Helena Valley. Overnight lows to look to fall into the 60`s
for most Wednesday into Thursday, offering brief relief from the
hottest temperatures. Those with flexible outdoor plans are urged to
move them to the morning hours when temperatures will not be as hot.

As the ridge axis slumps southeastward late in the week, flow aloft
becomes westerly, with embedded waves traversing through this flow.
Most of this energy looks to stay to the north of the region though,
keeping impacts minimal. There are scenarios where these systems
slide a bit further south late week and bring a small opportunity
for showers and thunderstorms near the International Border, but
these are not favored at the moment.

The weekend into early next week... Forecast models and their
ensembles favor warmer than average temperatures persisting into the
weekend as the upper level ridge persists across the west. Moisture
rounding the western periphery of the ridge will allow for an
outside chance for a shower or thunderstorm this weekend across
Southwest Montana, though those chances are low at this time. The
chance for 0.10" of rain across Southwest Montana this weekend only
peaks around 20% or so.

There is a bit more uncertainty heading into early next week, though
southwesterly flow will look to maintain low end chances for showers
and thunderstorms across primarily Southwest Montana. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
08/06Z TAF Period

An upper level ridge of high pressure centered west of the region
will maintain a dry northerly flow aloft across the area through the
period with little or no clouds and light surface winds prevailing at
all terminals. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  89  57  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  93  62  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  88  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  80  42  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  85  53  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  92  61  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls