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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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168 FXUS65 KTFX 041451 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 851 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue daily through Saturday over North Central MT, while drier conditions are expected for areas south of Interstate 90 from Butte to Bozeman. Afternoon temperatures will generally be below normal through Saturday as well. Starting Sunday, expect a warming trend, with afternoon temperatures becoming hot by the middle of next week, with no precipitation expected. && .UPDATE... A slight expansion on the precipitation chances for later this morning to reflect some updated model guidance. Otherwise, no major changes were made to the going forecast. There is a less than 20% chance for some fog development along the US-87 corridor from Fort Benton to Havre and into the Milk River Valley a little east of Havre. When the 12Z models run, the fog potential will be re-evaluated but for now it looks fairly benign and localized with no significant and/or widespread impacts expected. -thor && .AVIATION... 04/12Z TAF Period Mainly VFR conditions are expected during the morning hours tonight as lingering SHRA continue to move through.Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop across the plains this afternoon, which will bring periods of MVFR to IFR conditions as they pass through in addition to some briefly gusty winds and turbulence. Ludwig Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024/ Today through Saturday...A northwesterly flow aloft will continue to reside over the CWA for at least the next 3 days. This will result in periods of showers/thunderstorms to move from northwest to southeast through the CWA. Overall, most storms will be on the light side, but a few stronger storms could produce some gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rainfall. Temperatures will continue to mostly be below normal across the CWA through Saturday, with the Helena valley being the exception of slightly warmer temperatures. Sunday through Thursday...A strong upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to move over MT during this period. This will result in a significant heat wave to move into the CWA by the middle portion of next week. Depending on how far east the center of high pressure goes, will depend on exactly how hot it gets. However, most models prog afternoon temperatures close to at least 15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Additionally, the airmass will be very dry under this ridge, so no precipitation is expected. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 74 49 78 53 / 30 10 10 10 CTB 71 46 78 50 / 30 10 10 10 HLN 80 53 84 56 / 10 0 10 0 BZN 74 45 79 48 / 10 0 10 0 WYS 68 35 74 38 / 10 0 10 0 DLN 74 43 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 74 50 78 52 / 40 20 40 20 LWT 69 45 73 48 / 40 20 30 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls