Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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448 FXUS65 KTFX 042100 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue daily through Saturday for north central Montana with drier conditions expected south of interstate 90. Temperatures will stay cooler through Saturday before warming up next week. Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on and off through Saturday afternoon as northwesterly flow aloft continues to bring moisture and instability into the region. In general, these storms are expected to stay below severe limits, however, some small hail and gusty winds up to 55 mph are possible with stronger showers. Temperatures closer to normal will stick around through the weekend before warming up early next week. -thor Sunday through Thursday...A strong upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to move over MT during this period. This will result in a significant heat wave to move into the CWA by the middle portion of next week. Depending on how far east the center of high pressure goes, will depend on exactly how hot it gets. However, most models prog afternoon temperatures close to at least 15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Additionally, the airmass will be very dry under this ridge, so no precipitation is expected. Brusda && .AVIATION... 04/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions are predominately expected along and southwest of a KHLN to KBZN line, with scattered to broken MVFR conditions northeast of this line at the KGTF, KLWT, KCTB, and KLWT terminals through at least 00z this evening. Moist and unstable northwest flow aloft will bring another day of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the plains terminals of KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, and KLWT this afternoon, with decreasing coverage through the evening hours tonight. Main threat from any thunderstorm will be gusty and erratic winds, mainly to 25kts. Mountains will be obscured over Central and North Central Montana at times through this evening, with improving ridgetop visibility thereafter. - Moldan Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 77 53 76 / 10 20 10 20 CTB 46 77 50 75 / 10 10 20 20 HLN 52 83 56 83 / 0 10 10 30 BZN 45 79 48 79 / 0 10 0 20 WYS 34 73 37 75 / 0 10 0 20 DLN 43 79 46 81 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 50 78 52 77 / 20 40 20 30 LWT 46 72 48 71 / 20 40 20 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls