Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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499 FXUS65 KTFX 042332 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 530 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue daily through Saturday for north central Montana with drier conditions expected south of interstate 90. Temperatures will stay cooler through Saturday before warming up next week. Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on and off through Saturday afternoon as northwesterly flow aloft continues to bring moisture and instability into the region. In general, these storms are expected to stay below severe limits, however, some small hail and gusty winds up to 55 mph are possible with stronger showers. Temperatures closer to normal will stick around through the weekend before warming up early next week. -thor Sunday through Thursday...A strong upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to move over MT during this period. This will result in a significant heat wave to move into the CWA by the middle portion of next week. Depending on how far east the center of high pressure goes, will depend on exactly how hot it gets. However, most models prog afternoon temperatures close to at least 15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Additionally, the airmass will be very dry under this ridge, so no precipitation is expected. Brusda && .AVIATION... 05/00Z TAF Period VFR conditions are mostly forecast to continue through at least 06/00Z across North Central (KCTB, KHVR), Central (KLWT, KGTF, KHLN), and Southwest (KBZN, KEKS, KWYS) Montana. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms lingering over much of Central Montana through around 03Z will keep a chance for brief periods of MVFR conditions in heavier rain and small hail. Some of these storms may also produce erratic wind gusts up to 35 kt or so. Partly cloudy skies will linger through the remainder of the period with relatively light winds overnight. This may allow patchy fog to form where heavier rain fell today, but confidence is low that it will directly impact any of the terminals, so have left mention out of the TAFs for now. The northwesterly flow aloft will increase after 12Z, increasing the threat for mountain wave turbulence. The airmass should become weakly unstable again after 16Z, with the best chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly remaining over the plains east of a KCTB to KGTF line. -Coulston Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 77 53 76 / 10 20 10 20 CTB 46 77 50 75 / 10 10 20 20 HLN 52 83 56 83 / 0 10 10 30 BZN 45 79 48 79 / 0 10 0 20 WYS 34 73 37 75 / 0 10 0 20 DLN 43 79 46 81 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 50 78 52 77 / 20 40 20 30 LWT 46 72 48 71 / 20 40 20 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls