Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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143 FXUS65 KTFX 051508 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 908 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and again Saturday across primarily north-central Montana as a series a mainly weak weather disturbances move across the region under a northwest flow. Temperatures remain near to slightly below seasonal averages through Saturday before much warmer and drier conditions develop next week. && .UPDATE... The only significant change to the forecast was adding precipitation chances to the northern Rockies to account for the showers that have developed over the last couple hours. Some slight modifications were made to the precipitation chances in northern Hill and Blaine counties to account for the showers currently making their way out of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Otherwise, no major changes made to the going forecast. -thor && .AVIATION... 05/12Z TAF Period VFR conditions persist across the area with a weather disturbance embedded within northwest flow aloft bringing an increase in clouds across areas near the Canadian border later this morning and scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across north- central MT. Isolated more intense showers/thunderstorms this afternoon across north-central MT could produce some very brief MVFR cigs/vis along with locally gusty winds. Hoenisch Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024/ Today through Saturday... Satellite imagery early this morning shows the next shortwave upstream of the region in NW flow aloft currently moving into SW Alberta with additional energy moving into western BC atop a building upper level ridge off the west coast. Similar to the last couple of days, expect daily/mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms to move southeast across the area today and again Saturday with todays activity primarily focused across north- central MT with coverage extending further south across the area on Saturday but generally remaining north of I-90. Brief heavy downpours and lightning will be the primarily hazard with convection today and tomorrow with some potential for small hail and stronger (40-50 mph) wind gusts across Hill/Blaine counties this afternoon in closer proximity to the passing shortwave. Temperatures remain near to slightly below seasonal averages through Saturday with lower elevation afternoon temperatures ranging from the mid 70s across north-central MT to the low 80s across SW MT. Sunday through next week... A drier and warmer period begins Sunday with much warmer temperatures developing next week as the offshore upper ridge shifts inland. Multi-model ensembles are in good agreement to shift the ridge axis across the Northern Rockies mid-late next week, supporting widespread daytime temperatures in the 90s across most lower elevation locations by Wednesday with temperatures likely to peak next Thursday. Some moderation in temperatures is possible by next weekend but this is likely to be the first multi- day stretch of temperatures exceeding 90 for much of the area this summer. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 77 53 76 51 / 20 10 20 0 CTB 76 50 74 49 / 10 10 20 0 HLN 84 56 81 54 / 10 10 20 0 BZN 79 49 79 47 / 10 0 20 10 WYS 73 38 74 38 / 0 0 10 0 DLN 79 47 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 77 51 77 52 / 50 10 30 0 LWT 74 47 70 47 / 40 30 50 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls