Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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929 FXUS65 KTFX 060218 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 818 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the rest of the afternoon before tapering off by sunset. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move through north-central and central Montana Saturday bringing one more round of cooler and wetter conditions before the much warmer and drier conditions develop next week. && .UPDATE... With showers and a few thunderstorms making their way eastward a little more slowly than originally forecast, I increased Probability of Precipitation (POP), as well as, thunderstorm probability, through 06/03Z, to allow for a little more gentle progression eastward of the last lingering storms. Additionally, I adjusted wind speed/gust and sky condition grids, through 06/03Z, just a bit, to bring them more current. No further updates are necessary, at this time. - Fogleman && .AVIATION... 06/00Z TAF Period Note: The NWS Great Falls Office manages the following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN, KEKS and KWYS. Showers and a few thunderstorms continue across portions of north central and central Montana, this evening. VFR conditions are forecast for the duration of this TAF period at KCTB, KEKS and KWYS. Beginning at 06/17, PROB30s are included in all other TAFs, bringing conditions into the MVFR range, due to afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Localized areas of mountain obscuration are forecast in association with thunderstorm activity. Aside from thunderstorm, winds trend northwesterly to northeasterly, generally, less than 20KT. In response to a northerly winds component, some gusty winds develop across southwest Montana. These winds are forecast to reach 25KT/30KT; however, the funneling of winds through the north-south oriented mountain valleys/passes, causes some stronger gusts. - Fogleman Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024/ Today and tomorrow... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are underway across portions of north-central and central Montana. Overall, the severe threat remains low but gusty winds up to 50 mph and half-inch sized hail are still possible with stronger storms. These showers are expected to taper off by 8 PM. Another round of showers will start up after sunrise on Saturday and continue through much of the day. Similar to the past couple days, these showers will primarily impact north-central and central Montana with locally heavy downpours. The probability of severe weather is still less than 10% but small hail and gusty winds are possible. -thor Sunday through next week... A drier and warmer period begins Sunday with much warmer temperatures developing next week as the offshore upper ridge shifts inland. Multi-model ensembles are in good agreement to shift the ridge axis across the Northern Rockies mid-late next week, supporting widespread daytime temperatures in the 90s across most lower elevation locations by Wednesday with temperatures likely to peak next Thursday. Some moderation in temperatures is possible by next weekend but this is likely to be the first multi- day stretch of temperatures exceeding 90 for much of the area this summer. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 53 75 50 80 / 10 30 0 0 CTB 50 74 48 81 / 10 20 0 0 HLN 56 80 54 85 / 10 30 10 0 BZN 48 79 47 79 / 10 20 10 0 WYS 37 72 37 73 / 0 20 0 0 DLN 47 80 45 78 / 0 10 0 0 HVR 51 77 51 83 / 10 30 0 0 LWT 47 70 46 74 / 10 50 10 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls