475
FXUS65 KTFX 060542
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1140 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
the rest of the afternoon before tapering off by sunset. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms will move through north-central
and central Montana Saturday bringing one more round of cooler and
wetter conditions before the much warmer and drier conditions
develop next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

With showers and a few thunderstorms making their way eastward a
little more slowly than originally forecast, I increased
Probability of Precipitation (POP), as well as, thunderstorm
probability, through 06/03Z, to allow for a little more gentle
progression eastward of the last lingering storms. Additionally,
I adjusted wind speed/gust and sky condition grids, through
06/03Z, just a bit, to bring them more current. No further updates
are necessary, at this time.
- Fogleman

&&

.AVIATION...
06/06Z TAF Period

Next disturbance in NW flow aloft will spread mid level clouds and
widely scattered showers into N-central MT Saturday morning with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving southeast across
much of north-central and central MT Saturday afternoon.
Thunderstorm probabilities range from 20-30% at KHLN and KBZN to
around 50% at KHVR and KLWT. Brief/localized MVFR conditions are
possible near thunderstorms along with gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail across the area with skies clearing and showers
dissipating after 02z Sun. In addition to locally gusty winds near
thunderstorms, breezy northwest to north surface winds will spread
across the area on Saturday with winds diminishing Saturday evening.
Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 630 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024/

Today and tomorrow... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
underway across portions of north-central and central Montana.
Overall, the severe threat remains low but gusty winds up to 50
mph and half-inch sized hail are still possible with stronger
storms. These showers are expected to taper off by 8 PM. Another
round of showers will start up after sunrise on Saturday and
continue through much of the day. Similar to the past couple days,
these showers will primarily impact north-central and central
Montana with locally heavy downpours. The probability of severe
weather is still less than 10% but small hail and gusty winds are
possible. -thor

Sunday through next week... A drier and warmer period begins
Sunday with much warmer temperatures developing next week as the
offshore upper ridge shifts inland. Multi-model ensembles are in
good agreement to shift the ridge axis across the Northern Rockies
mid-late next week, supporting widespread daytime temperatures in
the 90s across most lower elevation locations by Wednesday with
temperatures likely to peak next Thursday. Some moderation in
temperatures is possible by next weekend but this is likely to be
the first multi- day stretch of temperatures exceeding 90 for much
of the area this summer. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  75  50  80 /  10  30   0   0
CTB  50  74  48  81 /  10  20   0   0
HLN  56  80  54  85 /  10  30  10   0
BZN  48  79  47  79 /  10  20  10   0
WYS  37  72  37  73 /   0  20   0   0
DLN  47  80  45  78 /   0  10   0   0
HVR  51  77  51  83 /  10  30   0   0
LWT  47  70  46  74 /  10  50  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls