Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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215 FXUS65 KTFX 021403 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 803 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon on the 4th of July, with the best chance for precipitation falling on Wednesday afternoon over North Central MT. Overall, afternoon temperatures will generally be below normal for the next few days, with Wednesday being the coolest day. Looking ahead, there is a potential for a summer heat wave to begin next week, along with generally drier conditions. && .Update... Morning update has been published, with only minor adjustments made to PoPs, mainly to expand areal coverage of isolated (15%) showers/storms through this morning to account for early morning radar returns over portions of the Central and North Central Montana plains and along the Continental Divide. Otherwise the remainder of the on-going forecast remains on track and no other updates are planned. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 02/12Z TAF Period VFR conditions are expected to prevail, though worse conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms. Expect showers to begin to redevelop later this morning, isolated at first across the plains before becoming widely scattered. Will need to watch KHVR, KCTB, KGTF, and KLWT for brief MVFR to IFR conditions, with the timing of these showers noted by PROB30 groups in the respective TAFs. Ludwig Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024/ Today through Wednesday...Two more cooler than normal days, along with scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue over the CWA. With an upper level trof slowly moving through the CWA over the next 2 days, we will have a chance for scattered showers/thunderstorms both days. As of now, Wednesday is looking like a more likely day for precipitation, thus pops are near 90 percent for much of North Central MT. However, QPF amounts are still rather low, with most areas only receiving between 0.10 and 0.20 inches of rainfall. In terms of thunderstorms, there is just enough instability for scattered areas of lightning, and possibly some small hail. However, the instability decreases each day through Wednesday, so the chances for storms will also slowly decrease each day as well. Because of the cloud cover/precip, Wednesday is looking to be the coolest day in awhile, with some locations over North Central MT having high temperatures only in the 60s. 4th of July...The upper level ridge will try to move east of the CWA today. However, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest during the morning/afternoon hours. Thus there will be a small chance for a light shower through late afternoon, the North Central MT having the highest chances. By Thursday evening, enough dry air should work in from the west, that most dry conditions are expected for Thursday evening across the CWA. Friday through Tuesday...A summer upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Rockies during this period. The exact day in which the ridge builds seems to flop a bit from day to day, but overall it looks like the ridge will start to build in by next Mon/Tue. This will result in mostly dry conditions developing over the weekend and continuing into early next week. Additionally, afternoon temperatures will be on the rise, with most areas averaging afternoon highs close to 10 degrees above normal by next Mon/Tue. Overall, do expect a rather lengthy period of very warm to hot temperatures to start to develop by early next week. Some long range forecast prog afternoon temperatures near/above 100 degrees in many areas for several days by later next week. Even if these progs are 10 degrees to warm, it is still looking rather warm/mostly dry for most days next week. Thus, excessive heat and fire weather statements might be needed by the later portions of next week as fuels continue to dry out. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 73 50 67 49 / 60 30 80 50 CTB 71 48 64 46 / 70 40 90 30 HLN 79 51 75 51 / 30 10 70 40 BZN 75 45 71 44 / 30 10 40 40 WYS 65 37 66 35 / 20 10 40 20 DLN 73 43 71 41 / 20 0 20 10 HVR 75 51 68 51 / 70 50 90 50 LWT 70 46 66 46 / 60 30 80 50 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls