Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
816 FXXX10 KWNP 030031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jul 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 03-Jul 05 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 03-Jul 05 2024 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 00-03UT 3.00 4.00 2.67 03-06UT 2.67 3.67 2.33 06-09UT 2.67 2.67 2.33 09-12UT 2.00 2.00 2.00 12-15UT 1.67 1.67 2.00 15-18UT 2.67 1.67 2.33 18-21UT 4.33 2.00 2.00 21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 2.67 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on Jul 03 due to potential CME influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 03-Jul 05 2024 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 03-Jul 05 2024 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 03-05 Jul.