211
FXUS62 KTBW 040857
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
457 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Other than a few showers offshore and some sneaky light sprinkles
in northern Manatee Co., it is just a quiet morning in paradise.
Meanwhile, Bermuda High ridging across the Peninsula should
keep light and variable winds in place during the short term. This
pattern allows the sea breeze to push pretty far inland given the
lack of resistant. In addition, PWs should be at around 2 inches
or just above that, which combined with daytime heating, the lift
from the sea breeze and the future outflow boundary collisions
should result in a fairly active afternoon and evening area-wide.
Convection is expected to start over the interior and push towards
the coast in the evening. The only caveat to this will be that
there could be some pockets of slightly drier air moving across
southern portions of the CWA that could limit how much activity
develops there.

On the other hand, the ample moisture combined with afternoon
highs in the mid 90s will bring heat indices up to 111 degrees in
multiple areas today. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in effect
through 6PM this evening. Residents and visitors should keep this
in mind if planning to be outside. Stay hydrated, stay out of the
sun and check up on the vulnerable. Friday could be another humid
and warm day, but no advisories are in effect yet.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

During the long term, high pressure moves north of the area
allowing a more south to southeasterly flow for the weekend.
Then, an upper level disturbance shifts winds from the south
potentially bringing additional energy to the area Monday and
Tuesday. Moisture is forecast to remain high with showers and
storms possible each afternoon. Afternoon highs remains in the 90s
with triple digits heat indices...not very comfortable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions expected overnight and through the morning across
terminals. Then, chances of showers and storms gradually increase
bringing the potential for intermittent MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibilities to most TAF sites. There is uncertainty for
PGD/FMY/RSW and much convection may develop as guidance keeps most
of the activity north of PGD. Nonetheless, a storm or two can not
be ruled out, especially later in the afternoon. Light east to
southeasterly winds prevail before becoming west to northwest.
Gusty and erratic winds area possible near storm environments.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure persists across the Gulf waters keeping light wind
flow through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The
afternoon sea breeze shifts winds onshore each day, and support
scattered showers and isolated storms during this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Ample moisture remains across fire districts with a fairly typical
summer set up continuing through the period. Light and variable
winds prevail with an onshore shift behind the sea breeze each
afternoon, as well as showers and storms developing during this time.
This should keep any fire weather concerns out of the area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  93  79 /  70  40  50  20
FMY  96  79  93  78 /  50  40  50  20
GIF  96  77  95  76 /  60  40  60  10
SRQ  93  78  93  78 /  60  40  50  20
BKV  94  76  94  75 /  70  40  50  20
SPG  93  83  93  83 /  70  40  50  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-
     Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt