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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
399 FXUS62 KTBW 051821 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 221 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... A residing high pressure system to the northeast will extend over the Florida peninsula through Saturday. This, coupled with a low pressure north of the Bahamas, will result in a weak pressure gradient that keeps our easterly winds generally calm. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain possible throughout the region. Perhaps the most concerning issue stems from the maintained high temperatures over our southwest and west central regions. A heat advisory has been issued until 7PM EDT for HI values up to 112. This hot and humid pattern is expected to persist through the weekend, and further advisories may be warranted in the coming days. Looking a little further in time, the high pressure ridge axis will begin to rebuild over the region next week. Elevated moisture in the area will continue to contribute to our traditional scattered to numerous sea breeze driven showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will persist throughout the week but heat index values are currently not expected to reach 108+ advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA are developing this afternoon on the weak seabreeze with brief and LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs thru 01Z. VRF conditions and light winds return areawide aft 02Z Sat. Expect more summertime convection Saturday afternoon for flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Weak pressure gradient to keep winds light and seas slight through the weekend that will continue into early next week. Main concern will be scattered to numerous thunderstorms that produce locally gusty winds and higher seas along with dangerous lightning for mariners and along area beaches. Small underlying long period swells may move into the E Gulf waters from the S-SW Gulf into next week as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Abundant moisture and light winds to keep fire concerns minimalized, but the light winds may produce low dispersion values through the weekend. Expect daily thunderstorms and dangerous lightning that may ignite or hold over in dry fuels outside of rain cores. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 93 79 93 / 40 60 30 70 FMY 78 93 78 93 / 40 60 20 70 GIF 76 97 77 96 / 30 50 10 70 SRQ 77 93 78 93 / 40 60 30 70 BKV 75 94 75 94 / 40 60 20 70 SPG 82 93 83 93 / 40 60 40 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Quessenberry AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis