954
FXUS62 KTBW 301846
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
246 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

An upper-level impulse of energy is propagating across the state as
relatively zonal flow continues to dominate the synoptic pattern. At
the surface, weak ridging remains in place, with the axis shifted a
little farther north today. In response, an ENE flow (similar to
regime 2) continues to be in place.

This flow is more saturated than normal, with PW values in excess of
2 inches noted today. This is towards the upper-bound of climatology
for this date. When coupled with the ample instability and
forcing, this is why scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms have been ongoing today, and why they are expected
to continue this evening. Across the Tampa Bay area and the Nature
Coast, the west coast sea breeze has been delayed, and is only
now just getting underway. However, storms are beginning to fire
across this region now as well, suggesting activity will continue
to increase across Central and North Florida.

After an active day today, however, some slightly drier air is
forecast to move into the region tomorrow. While far from preventing
convection entirely, the overall coverage of storms does look to be
lower, with PW values dropping down towards 1.6 to 1.8 inches. This
looks short-lived, though. As the ridge axis continues to shift,
ushering back an ESE flow, the drier air should quickly be mixed out
by Tuesday, with more widespread activity returning through the
remainder of the work week.

Towards the weekend, there are indications a more ENE flow could
return, and then more neutral flow for Saturday. Scattered to
numerous storms will continue each day, but could be lower coverage
again on Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Widespread convection is ongoing across SWFL, with the expectation
that more development will happen within the next hour or so
farther to the north around the Tampa Bay Area. All terminals will
have the potential for MVFR to even IFR conditions and gusty
winds briefly over the next few hours. The highest confidence is
for SWFL terminals, and the lowest confidence is for KLAL.
Activity should wind down within a couple hours of sunset, with a
quiet night expected thereafter. Slightly drier air tomorrow looks
to limit overall convective potential, with probs too low for
mention at any terminal for this TAF cycle. SWFL terminals may see
a window late tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon, moving
offshore through the evening. Locally hazardous winds and seas are
possible in the vicinity of storms. Otherwise, a light ENE to ESE
flow is expected, turning onshore during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Ample moisture remains to support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day. Tomorrow looks to have the least coverage
for the week with as ESE flow settles in. Winds could turn onshore
near the coast during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  79  93 /  60  20  10  70
FMY  75  91  77  92 /  40  50  10  70
GIF  75  94  77  95 /  40  40  20  70
SRQ  75  90  77  92 /  60  20  10  70
BKV  73  92  75  94 /  60  30  10  70
SPG  80  91  82  93 /  70  20  10  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery