921
FXUS62 KTBW 022358
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
758 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A weak frontal boundary remains stretched from west to east from the
northeast Gulf of Mexico to Georgia. This boundary will remain to
the north and weaken over the next 24 hours as broad surface high
pressure south of Bermuda ridges westward across the central part of
Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico. This ridge of high
pressure will be the dominant weather factor through mid-week
keeping a predominant southeast wind flow over the region. Abundant
moisture with PWAT values between 1.8 - 2.3 inches will persist
through the forecast period. Scattered showers and storms will be
possible today and tomorrow, developing over the southeast part of
Florida and traversing northwestward each afternoon/evening as well
as some west coast sea breeze developments. Nocturnal land breeze
showers and storms can also be expected over the eastern gulf waters
during the overnight hours. Daytime highs will top out in the low to
mid 90`s with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows
will remain in the 70`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Throughout the next 3-7 days, high pressure to our north will begin
to move southeast and become centered to the east-northeast of the
state, dominating the overall weather pattern and establishing a
predominantly east-southeast flow across our CWA. This synoptic
setup, combined with adequate moisture aloft, will be favorable for
typical summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon hours throughout most of the week. As we approach the
weekend, a drier air mass will move across some northern and central
parts of the state, which could slightly hinder thunderstorm
development during that timeframe. Moisture is expected to return
towards the latter half of the weekend though, and this will remain
along with the established east-southeast flow to continue to
support the development of scattered afternoon showers and storms
heading into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Most of the shower activity has diminished this evening with only
an hour or two of VCTS needed at a few sites. Seabreeze storms
will once again pop up tomorrow mainly in the late afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will generally remain below 10 knots with VFR
conditions outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

High pressure ridging through the center part of the state is
producing a light south to southeast flow today, becoming more east-
southeast on Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week.
Winds will be light, not exceeding 15 knots with wave heights 2 feet
or less throughout the period. Scattered showers and storms can be
expected daily through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A typical summertime pattern continues over the area with abundant
moisture, warm temperatures and light winds. Scattered showers and
isolated storms expected each day through the end of the week and
into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  93 /  50  70  60  60
FMY  77  94  77  95 /  30  70  30  60
GIF  77  95  76  95 /  30  70  40  60
SRQ  78  92  77  94 /  40  70  50  60
BKV  75  93  75  95 /  50  70  50  60
SPG  80  92  82  94 /  50  70  60  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana