535
FXUS62 KTAE 022313
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
713 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Upper level ridge remains in control of the weather pattern
through Wednesday while plenty of deep-layer tropical moisture
remains in place thanks to moist east and southeasterly flow. A
weak boundary on the edge of a surface high that noses down the
eastern seaboard will serve as a focus for storms to develop on
Wednesday across our Georgia counties along with airmass storms
and convection being forced by the northward moving seabreeze.
Similar to this afternoon, storms will get going late in the
morning and early afternoon hours and generally move northward
through the day Wednesday. With a very muggy airmass in place,
heat indices will again remain a concern. Similar to Tuesday, not
all locations will see heat indices above 108 (criteria for heat
advisory), but most locations across our Florida counties and into
extreme southern Georgia where rainfall doesn`t occur, or
develops late, will likely hit a 108 heat index.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Deep layer ridging is forecast to set up overhead and remain
pretty much in place throughout the next week or so. This will
allow temperatures to rise again into the mid to upper 90s with
heat indices in the 105-115 degree range in the afternoons.
Several days of heat advisories appear likely. Low temperatures
are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s, which will not
allow for much respite at all from the daytime heat. Accumulation
of many abnormally hot days and nights will increase our overall
susceptibility to heat illness and exhaustion. Please take heat
safety precautions seriously. Despite the ridging, ample moisture
overhead will still allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day, with the best chances along the diurnal sea/land breeze
circulation. Severe weather appears less likely at this point, but
some storms could produce gusty winds. The primary threat with
these storms seems to be locally heavy rainfall with some isolated
spots of flooding possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening along a decaying frontal boundary, mainly affecting the
VLD terminal into the late evening hours. Winds will become calm
and low ceilings are expected to fall to IFR/LIFR conditions for
TLH, DHN, ABY, and VLD terminals during the morning hours.
Ceilings are expected to lift by 14Z-15Z Wednesday, with more
showers and thunderstorms expected for the afternoon. The ECP
terminal will likely see shower and thunderstorm activity soon
after daybreak, and should end by mid-afternoon as the seabreeze
pushes the convective activity further inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Generally south to southwest winds are expected through much of the
week, and seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result. Scattered
showers and storms are expected through today, with activity
generally greatest in the overnight and early morning hours as the
diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak. Long period swell
from Hurricane Beryl will arrive late Friday into Saturday and
linger over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The wet pattern from the last few days and relative humidities
staying above 45% through the next few days will keep fire
concerns low through the period. The only concerns will be lower
dispersions across south-central Georgia and the southeast
Florida Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A very warm and moist airmass is forecast to remain over the area
through the upcoming week. Scattered to sometimes widespread showers
and storms are expected daily, and locally heavy rainfall will
remain possible throughout the period. Widespread flooding is not
expected, but several instances of nuisance flooding will be
possible across the area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  92  76  93 /  20  70  30  60
Panama City   78  90  77  91 /  30  60  20  50
Dothan        75  92  75  93 /  30  60  20  50
Albany        75  92  75  93 /  30  60  20  50
Valdosta      76  93  75  93 /  50  70  30  60
Cross City    75  93  75  94 /  50  70  50  60
Apalachicola  79  88  78  89 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield