Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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542 FXUS62 KTAE 021938 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 338 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Upper level ridge remains in control of the weather pattern through Wednesday while plenty of deep-layer tropical moisture remains in place thanks to moist east and southeasterly flow. A weak boundary on the edge of a surface high that noses down the eastern seaboard will serve as a focus for storms to develop on Wednesday across our Georgia counties along with airmass storms and convection being forced by the northward moving seabreeze. Similar to this afternoon, storms will get going late in the morning and early afternoon hours and generally move northward through the day Wednesday. With a very muggy airmass in place, heat indices will again remain a concern. Similar to Tuesday, not all locations will see heat indices above 108 (criteria for heat advisory), but most locations across our Florida counties and into extreme southern Georgia where rainfall doesn`t occur, or develops late, will likely hit a 108 heat index. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Deep layer ridging is forecast to set up overhead and remain pretty much in place throughout the next week or so. This will allow temperatures to rise again into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 105-115 degree range in the afternoons. Several days of heat advisories appear likely. Low temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s, which will not allow for much respite at all from the daytime heat. Accumulation of many abnormally hot days and nights will increase our overall susceptibility to heat illness and exhaustion. Please take heat safety precautions seriously. Despite the ridging, ample moisture overhead will still allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, with the best chances along the diurnal sea/land breeze circulation. Severe weather appears less likely at this point, but some storms could produce gusty winds. The primary threat with these storms seems to be locally heavy rainfall with some isolated spots of flooding possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 MVFR/VFR conditions prevail this afternoon as storms generally move inland this afternoon. Most of the coverage of storms this afternoon will be at VLD/DHN/ABY with coverage dropping after 00z. IFR/LIFR conditions will potentially develop at all sites overnight but ECP tonight, but confidence on exactly when and where remain low. Expect the IFR/LIFR conditions to slowly scour out through 15z on Wednesday with heating of the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Generally south to southwest winds are expected through much of the week, and seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result. Scattered showers and storms are expected through today, with activity generally greatest in the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak. Long period swell from Hurricane Beryl will arrive late Friday into Saturday and linger over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The wet pattern from the last few days and relative humidities staying above 45% through the next few days will keep fire concerns low through the period. The only concerns will be lower dispersions across south-central Georgia and the southeast Florida Big Bend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A very warm and moist airmass is forecast to remain over the area through the upcoming week. Scattered to sometimes widespread showers and storms are expected daily, and locally heavy rainfall will remain possible throughout the period. Widespread flooding is not expected, but several instances of nuisance flooding will be possible across the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 92 76 93 / 20 70 30 60 Panama City 78 90 77 91 / 30 60 20 50 Dothan 75 92 75 93 / 30 60 20 50 Albany 75 92 75 93 / 30 60 20 50 Valdosta 76 93 75 93 / 50 70 30 60 Cross City 75 93 75 94 / 50 70 50 60 Apalachicola 79 88 78 89 / 30 50 40 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-114. High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ068-069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Merrifield