115
FXUS01 KWBC 142001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 15 2024 - 00Z Wed Jul 17 2024

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat continues to intensify from
the Plains to the East Coast...

...Multiple rounds of storms to bring the threat of severe weather
and flash flooding to portions of the northern Plains,
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes region
Monday-Tuesday...

...Monsoonal pattern continues for the Four Corners region with
some locally heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding
possible...

A broad heatwave from the Plains to the East Coast will continue
over the next couple of days, becoming particularly intense for
many of the urban centers in the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and along
the East Coast. Forecast highs range from the low to mid-90s in
New England west through the interior Northeast and into portions
of the Great Lakes, the mid-90s to low 100s from the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast west through the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley, and the low to mid-100s over portions of the central and
southern Plains. Widespread heat-related advisories and warnings
are in effect as the combination of hot temperatures and humidity
brings heat indices into the 105-110 degree range. Numerous
record-tying/breaking highs are possible along the East Coast and
into portions of the Ohio Valley and Southeast. Very warm
overnight low temperatures generally in the mid- to upper 70s,
also near record-tying/breaking levels, will provide little relief
from the heat overnight. Most of the populated urban centers of
the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and along the East Coast will be at a
major (level 3/4) to extreme (level 4/4) risk from this heat.
Conditions will be extremely dangerous and potentially deadly for
those without adequate access to effective cooling and hydration.
A cold front will bring relief to portions of the central Plains,
Middle Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes Tuesday while the
intense heat will unfortunately continue into at least mid-week
for areas to the south and east. In the West, after a brief break
from the heat following last week`s heat wave, hotter temperatures
will begin to return Tuesday over portions of the Pacific
Northwest, with highs into the upper 80s to upper 90s, and in the
northern Great Basin with highs in the mid 90s to low-100s.

Multiple rounds of storms are expected in vicinity of a frontal
boundary pushing southward through the northern Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes this (Sunday) evening and once
again on Monday. Plentiful moisture, moderate to strong
instability, and strong westerly flow aloft will favor the
potential for severe weather, particularly for one (or more)
organized convective systems producing damaging winds, as well as
some large hail and a few tornadoes. For the rest of the day and
into Sunday evening, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather over portions of the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as well as the northern Plains. Then,
on Monday, there is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for portions of
the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes where a greater
threat of more widespread, significant damaging winds will exist.
In addition, the anomalously high moisture will lead to heavy rain
rates with these storms, and the storms having a tendency to
follow a similar path in parallel with the boundary, will bring an
increasing flash flood risk as antecedent conditions become
increasingly wet. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 2/5) for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley into the
Great Lakes both through Sunday evening and once again on Monday.
The front will push eastward towards the Interior Northeast and
southward into the Ohio Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley, and
Central Plains on Tuesday. Additional rounds of heavy
rain-producing thunderstorms, once again having the tendency to
cluster and repeat over the same locations in parallel to the
front, will bring another risk of scattered flash flooding,
particularly for portions of the Ohio Valley southwest through the
Middle Mississippi Valley where a Slight Risk is in effect.
Additional isolated instances of flash flooding, as well as some
damaging wind gusts, will be possible with storms elsewhere along
and ahead of the front.


Daily thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast over
portions of the Four Corners region as a Monsoonal pattern remains
in place. Anomalously high moisture flowing into the region will
lead to the chance of some locally heavy downpours, and the risk
of isolated flash flooding, particularly for any burn scars.
Elsewhere, some daily scattered thunderstorm chances are also
expected over portions of the Southeast and Florida Monday and
Tuesday.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$