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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
591 FXUS65 KSLC 032157 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 357 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to build into the West. A long duration heat wave will impact southwestern Utah Sunday...reaching into northern Utah by Tuesday. This heat wave will continue through the remainder of the work week...and potentially beyond. && .DISCUSSION...The main story for the forecast over the next seven days will be an intense, long duration heat wave that will impact much of the region. Afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates broad upper level ridging across the eastern Pacific into the Southwest. Mean troughing remains in place across eastern Montana and the northern High Plains. Temperatures will gradually warm through this weekend, reaching significant levels across lower Washington County, Zion National Park, and the Glen Canyon area by Sunday. Issued Excessive Heat Warnings for these areas starting Sunday and continuing through Monday. These will likely need to be extended further, potentially into the next weekend, as guidance suggests there is little chance of much cooling through at least Saturday. By Tuesday, the very hot temperatures will spread into northern Utah. Eventually heat headlines may be needed for northern Utah valleys, as early as Tuesday. The very hot temperatures will continue through the end of the forecast period and likely beyond. Heat waves of this duration can have significant impacts, especially to those without access to adequate cooling or active outdoors. Heat stress is cumulative, with longer duration heat waves having more impacts as time increases. Practice safe heat practices such as avoiding outdoor activities during peak heating and ensuring adequate hydration. There is little indication in the long range guidance of much relief from the heat through the next 7 to 10 days, though a portion of the guidance does bring in mid-level moisture Tuesday into Wednesday across eastern Utah. This may be more a fire weather threat than a relief from the temperatures however. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Northwesterly flow will prevail over the KSLC terminal for the next several hours, switching to a southerly flow late. A period of light and variable flow is expected between 07-08Z before southerly drainage flow establishes. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Predominantly northerly flow is expected through the remainder of the daylight hours. After sun down, light terrain driven flows are expected across all terminals through the overnight hours under clear skies. && .FIRE WEATHER...As persistent high pressure builds into the West, a long duration, intense heat wave will develop Sunday into much of the next week. Near record to record temperatures and very dry conditions with poor overnight recoveries can be expected. There is a low chance mid-level moisture will increase Tuesday into Wednesday, which could bring an increased threat of dry lightning. Otherwise, gusty winds and low humidities will continue to bring critical fire weather conditions on Thursday across the San Rafael Swell and western Uinta Basin. Another round of increased wind is possible for the eastern valleys on Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance shifts southward well east of the area. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ478-479-498. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ482-489. Excessive Heat Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for UTZ123-124-131. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity