Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
232 FXCA62 TJSJ 012046 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 446 PM AST Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The movement of Major Hurricane Beryl across the eastern Caribbean basin will bring unstable weather tonight through Tuesday. The greatest impact to our islands from Beryl will be across the southern regional waters that will experience chaotic seas due to a strong swell beginning tonight lasting through tomorrow. Strong breaking waves up to 17 feet are possible. Squally weather bringing thunderstorms and strong winds will be seen across the region during this time. Conditions should improve by Wednesday, however the approach of the next system on Thursday will bring back unstable weather for the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday... The weather conditions are expected to quickly deteriorate tonight across portions of the Anegada Passage, the Caribbean waters, and the U.S. Virgin Islands as the outer bands from Major Hurricane Beryl begin to move over the region. Beryl should pass about 200 miles or more south of the islands by Tuesday morning. In its path, the outer bands of Beryl will bring periods of thunderstorms and breezy to windy conditions, with winds ranging between 25-30 mph with stronger gusts, especially across the southern half of the region. Quick-moving showers with periods of heavy rainfall could lead to urban and small-stream flooding and localized flash flooding. Due to the fast-moving nature of these showers, rainfall accumulations should generally range between 1 and 2 inches with isolated higher amounts, mainly across the USVI and the eastern and southern half of PR. Beryl will also bring hazardous seas and life- threatening rip currents with high surf conditions across all the islands. The greatest impacts to our islands from Beryl will be across the southern waters that will experience chaotic seas due to a strong swell tonight through tomorrow. This will cause very hazardous coastal conditions with strong breaking waves in excess of 15 feet at times. Weather conditions will improve by late Tuesday and continue through Wednesday as another Saharan Air Layer with drier air and suspended dust moves from the east. Therefore, hazy skies and limited shower activity can be expected through Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... /from previous discussion/ The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor an area of low pressure (Invest 96L) located in the Central Tropical Atlantic with a medium to high formation chance over the next few days. This low pressure is expected to approach the Caribbean waters by Thursday, and staying well south of the local area. At this moment, model guidance suggest that this system could bring a broad moisture field toward the northeastern Caribbean. Therefore, enhancing the shower and thunderstorm potential across the local islands. The precipitable water content analysis suggests between 2.25 to 2.30 inches. Therefore, a wet and unstable weather pattern will be present through at least Saturday. By Saturday, as the Invest 96L moves toward the western Caribbean drier air will filter across the region and fair weather will establish with limited shower activity. A vigorous tropical wave located behind Invest 96L is forecast to approach the local area by early Monday. This wave will bring sufficient moisture to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the local area. Model guidance does not develop this wave, however, the effects of this wave will affect the area through midweek. Regardless of the expected tropical activity, warm temperatures will dominate throughout the week. Daytime temperatures will remain in the range from the upper 80s to lower 90s along the urban and coastal sectors, and heat indices reaching the low to mid 100s. Heat Advisories are likely with the expected conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) SHRA and TSRA are expected to increase after 22Z, mainly for the USVI and TJSJ terminals as Hurricane Beryl moves well south of the islands. SE winds at 15-20 kts, G30kts is anticipated after this time. Conditions will improve for the USVI terminals around 02/15z, and after 02/18 For TJSJ. Winds will remain enhanced, with more frequent gusts tonight and tomorrow. && .MARINE... Fresh to strong easterly winds will continue late tonight into Tuesday as Major Hurricane Beryl moves westward across the Caribbean Basin, far to the south of the regional waters. This will cause hazardous marine and coastal conditions to prevail especially for the Caribbean Waters and Passages. The outer bands of Beryl may produce squally weather during that time. && .BEACH FORECAST... Dangerous breaking waves up to 17 feet are anticipated tomorrow for the southern coastlines. Some of these areas in Puerto Rico include: Patillas (Road PR-3, Sector La Guarda Raya, communities near Inches Beach, and the fishing village; Guayanilla (El Faro community); Ponce (La Playa neighborhood); Guayama (Villa Real, Quebrada Branderi, Playita Machete, Barrancas, Pozuelo); Salinas (Playa Salinas and Playita); Santa Isabel (Yauca); Juana Diaz (Pastillo and Manzanillo); and Arroyo (Barrio Pueblo and Playita Cortada). && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for PRZ002. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ003-007- 011. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ003-007-011- 013. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ003-007-011-013. High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for PRZ012-013. VI...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ002. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ002. High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AST Tuesday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Tuesday for AMZ723. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ726-745. Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Wednesday for AMZ733-741. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ735. && $$ ERG/MMC/RVT/RC